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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 02 - 08.02.2015,
Forecast on 09 - 16.02.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2160 (1,28.02.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL
ALL DAYS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W =054+16/-11. ON THE
VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6 - 3 SUNSPOT GROUPS,
ONE OF WHICH WAS THE THE MIDDLE SIZE (Sp>300 mvh).

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMA-
TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+
10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MODERATE LEVEL ON 04.02, AND THE LOW ON
OTHER DAYS. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION WERE OCCURRENCE AT 4.02.
BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED > 21 CME. NO
EARTH-DIRECTED CME WERE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
04.02 0208 0215 0255 N10W14L329 M1.2/2N 5.7E-03 12277

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
04.02 2244 2336 N27E11L298 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
уH - S30L015 S60L327 Ps S32L042 01.02 7 SDO, SOHO...
уH - N13L209 S01L206 S03L209 N03L221 14.02 3 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 05.02/12 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 17.02.

FEBRUARY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 FEBRUARY
Wus 117 112 085 086 071 080 094
F10.7 144 149 145 142 143 153 153
иbcg B6.8 B7.8 B7.5 ч5.9 B6.2 B7.5 B7.3 GOES
Sp 680 830 700 560 440 480 510 mvh
N 2 1 1
IMF - - - -/+ + + + буе
Е>2 1.1E+7 8.7е+7 1.9е+8 1.7е+8 2.7е+7 2.3E+7 1.0E+7 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 29 16 10 13 4 10 11 nT
Dst -49 -29 -20 -14 -12 -39 -34 nT KIOTO
Amsc 19 15 13 11 4 10 10 nT IZMIRAN
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Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL BEGAN AT 3.02 IN 1305 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 3 - 5.02. IT IS
REACTION OF THE MAGNETOSPHERE TO MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE 1 - 3.02. SHORT
DURATION OF THIS ELECTRONIC STORM PERHAPS IS EXPLAINED BY THAT EARTH
WAS INFLUENCED BY THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM ONLY OF SMALL PART OF THE PO-
LAR CORONAL HOLE.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=32, dur. = 36 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER
IN BOULDERE DATA AND (G1, Ams= 29, dur. = 15 h.) BY DATA IZMIRAN WAS RE-
GISTRED 1 -3.02 FOLLOWED BY EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT NEGATIVE POLARITY CO-
RONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE AND DISTURBANCE FROM SOLAR
FILAMENT EJECTION 28.02. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED
FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK UNSETTLED AND QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru