Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150105.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jan 5 14:43:37 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:09 2016 Кодировка: Windows-1251 Поисковые слова: winter solstice

Respected users,
HAPPY NEW 2015 YEAR.
Solar activity slowly, but began to decline in the first solar cycle
of epoch "lowered" solar activity. We went into the "terra incognita",
as the most comprehensive study of solar active phenomena, both terre-
strial and space means of observations captured the epoch of "increased"
SA (19-22 solar cycles), and the transition period (22-23 SC), when so-
lar activity was rebuilt from the epoch of "increased" to the epoch of
"lowered" SA. The most striking and unexpected process of this transiti-
on period was the effect of Livingston, Penn, where for ~14 years (23-24
SC) average magnetic field in the umbra of sunspots fell ~1,000 gauss.
Accordingly, the total solar magnetic field significantly weakened, lead-
ing to new conditions of solar active phenomena occurrence in the epoch
that began with the current solar cycle. According to the rule Gnevyshev
-Ol’, this is quite stable working inside epochs the next solar cycle 25
will be higher, the average in size.

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2014 HAS MADE
Wdec.= 78.0,
THAT GIVES FOR 65 MONTHS (2014, JUNE) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*June = 79.7
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014
THE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 81.9

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014,
DECEMBERR ACCORDING DATA OF 71 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 96 6.. 42 11.. 75 16..119 21.. 93 26.. 60 31.. 65
2.. 85 7.. 39m 12.. 78 17..121M 22.. 80 27.. 62
3.. 78 8.. 48 13.. 95 18..115 23.. 78 28.. 68
4.. 73 9.. 47 14..110 19..119 24.. 63 29.. 64
5.. 44 10.. 61 15..113 20.. 94 25.. 66 30.. 66

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2014, DECEMBER
Fdec.= 158.7

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, DECEMBER
Ap dec.= 10.8
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 29.12.2014 - 04.01.2015,
Forecast on 05 - 12.01.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2158, 2159 (08,61.12.2014; 4,94.01.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LE-
VEL ALL DAYS. SINCE JANUARY, 1 ALL SUNSPOT AR ARE OBSERVED ONLY
IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND SUCH SITUATION, JUDGING BY DATA
OF "GONG" SYSTEM, WILL LAST NOT LESS THAN A WEEK MORE. ESTIMATED,
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 066+08/-10. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF
THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6-8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS
THE BIG SIZE:
AR122532 (S19L028, Sp= 900 mvh, M/1) - was formed on December 30
on the eastern hemisphere (E67). Under simple magnetic configura-
tion rapid growth area was observed with 1.01, but it was expres-
sed only in the significant increase in flares of small classes,
and finally realized 3.01 flare M1.1 / 1N. Large flares shouldn't
be expected so far.

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMA-
TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040
+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 3.01, AND THE LOW -IN
OTHER DAYS. 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION WERE OCCURRENCE IN THIS PE-
RIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED > 24
CME.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
03.01 0940 0947 0957 S04E17L126 M1.1/1N 3.1E-03 12253
04.01 1517 1536 1731 S07E02L126 2N/M1.3 1.6E-02 12253

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
29.12 >1032 <2220 N14W12L086 11
29.12 1540 1616 N21W03L130 5
29.12 >2347 <1446 N35W47L095 8
03.01 >1035 <2222 S25W06L023 6 12252
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL, BUT SEPARATE
FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASS IN AR12253 WHICH ARE PROVIDED BY THE MAIN EVO-
LUTIONARY MAGNETIC FLUX OF SUNSPOTS GROUPS AND THE SMALL NEW MAGNETIC
FLUX IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEADING SUNSPOT ARE POSSIBLE ARE POSSIB-
LE. LARGE FLARES ARE POSSIBLE ONLY IN CASE OF EMERGENCE OF THE NEW
SIGNIFICANT MAGNETIC FLUX.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
уH + N40L309 N35L299 N10L341 N18L349 09.01 5 G0 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 22.12/1730 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. 1-3.01 THE SECTOR SIGN REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLOW-
ING SECTOR BOUNDARY - / + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 6.01.

DECEMBER 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 JANUARY
Wus 113 102 094 101 113 122 124
F10.7 132 130 134 138 146 149 150
иbcg ч4.8 B4.4 ч5.8 ч4.9 B4.9 B5.7 B6.7 GOES
Sp 560 510 710 870 1250 1300 1220 mvh
N 1 1 1 1
IMF - - - - - - - буе
Е>2 4.5E+6 2.1е+7 6.5е+7 4.7е+7 3.2е+7 1.4E+6 8.0E+5 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 25 19 8 14 6 11 16 nT
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 26 15 10 9 24 13 15 nT IZMIRAN
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Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN 31/1355 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 31.12 AND 1-2.01.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 5-10.01.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=33, dur.=21 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER
IN BOULDERE DATA AND (G1, Ams= 34, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DA-
TA IT IS NOTED ON DECEMBER, 29-30. THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS PER-
HAPS CONNECTED WITH M2.2/2B FLARE 26.12. SECOND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM
(G1, Ams= 36, dur.= 15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDERE DATA AND
(G1, Ams=38, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA IS NOTED ON 4 - 5.01.
TWO DAY BEFORE (2-3.01) 9-hours SUBSTORM (G1) WAS NOTED to IZMIRAN DATA
AND, ACCORDING DATA OF CENTER IN BOULDERE DURATION OF THIS SUBSTORM WAS
6 h. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IN OTHER DAYS WAS MAINLY UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK UNSETTLED AND QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE.
SEPARATE SUBSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE EARTH
PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR CORONAL HOLE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.

NEXT WEEK THE UNSETTLED AND THE QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS MOST PRO-
BABLE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru