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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 15 - 21.12.2014 ,
Forecast on 22 - 29.12.2014,
Carrington Rotation 2158, 2159 (08,61.12.2014; 4,94.01.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LE-
VEL ALL DAYS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 063+14/
-11. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 8-6 SUN-
SPOT GROUPS, TWO OF WHICH WERE AVERAGE SIZE: AR12241 (S11L217)
AND AR12242 (S20L240).

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMA-
TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040
+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 22 AND 26.12, AND THE
LOW -IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE
OBSERVED 23 CME.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
22.12 0118 0149 0234 S19W54L240 M1.0/1F 1.1E-02 12242
26.12 0203 0216 0324 S11W48L164 M2.2/2B 1.4E-02 12249

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL, BUT SEPARATE
FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASSES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
уH + N60L144 N50L129 N25L159 N28L169 25-26.12 4 - SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 22.12/1730 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 06.01.

DECEMBER 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 DECEMBER
Wus 113 128 086 100 092 111 108
F10.7 179 166 151 145 137 134 133
иbcg C1.1 B9.7 C1.0 C1.1 B6.9 B5.2 B4.3 GOES
Sp 1330 1030 480 460 280 580 520 mvh
N 1 2 1 1 2
IMF +/- - - - - - - буе
Е>2 2.6E+7 1.9е+7 2.4е+7 2.0е+7 1.8е+7 1.3E+7 1.6E+7 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 20 11 16 14 16 7 10 nT
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 18 13 10 13 13 8 15 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=35, dlit.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER
IN BOLDERE DATA IT IS NOTED ON DECEMBER 21-22. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DA-
TA IT WAS A 9-hour SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY (G1). IT IS GEOMAGNETIC DISTUR-
BANCE WAS A CONSEQUENCE OF LARGE FLARE EVENTS ON DECEMBER 17 - 18. LARGE
X1.8/3B FLARE CAUSED ONLY 9-hours SUBSTORM (G0) 24.12. THE GEOMAGNETIC
CONDITIONS IN OTHER DAYS WERE MAINLY TO UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE UNSETTLED AND THE QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS MOST PRO-
BABLE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru