Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2014/obzor20141208.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Dec 8 11:15:19 2014 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:49:59 2016 Кодировка: Windows-1251 Поисковые слова: п п п п п

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2014 HAS MADE
Wnov.= 70.1,
THAT GIVES FOR 64 MONTHS (2014, may) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*may = 80.5
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE - APRIL 2014
THE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 81.9

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014,
NOVEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 73 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 61 6.. 68 11.. 60 16.. 70 21.. 51 26.. 94
2.. 66 7.. 72 12.. 59 17.. 67 22.. 57 27..103
3.. 76 8.. 58 13.. 76 18.. 52 23.. 53 28.. 97
4.. 74 9.. 51 14.. 69 19.. 44m 24.. 70 29..106н
5.. 93 10.. 47 15.. 75 20.. 50 25.. 79 30..104

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2014, NOVEMBER
Fnov.= 154.8

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, NOVEMBER
Ap nov.= 8.9
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 01 - 08.11.2014,
Forecast on 08 - 15.12.2014,
Carrington Rotation 2157, 2158 (11.30.11; 8,61.12.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE HIGH AND THE
AVERAGE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELA-
TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W =
064+32/-29. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSER-
VED 9-4 SUNSPOT GROUPS, AMONG WHICH ONE BIG SIZE WERE CONS-
TANTLY OBSERVED: AR12222 (S20L082, CMP 01.12.2014, Sp max=770
mvh) IN WHICH, AT LAST, AFTER EMERGENCE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC
FLUX 4 - 5.12, IN 28 HOURS ONE LARGE AND 3 FLARES OF AVERAGES
OF CLASSES WERE OCCURENCED.

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED AVERAGE, AND BY END OF THE PERIOD POSSIBLE
AND THE LOW SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY
AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL FT 4.11, THE MIDDLE - 1
AND 5.11 AND THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE ARE 1 EJECTIONS OF
THE SOLAR FILAMENTS. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO
WERE OBSERVED >15 CME.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
01.12 0626 0641 0718 S21E17L083 M1.8/1N 2.3E-2 12222
04.12 0736 0810 0932 S24W27L083 1N/M1.3 1.1E-2 12222
04.12 1805 1825 >1856 S21W28L083 M6.1/ 1.2E-1 12222
05.12 1133 1225 >1247 S23W41L083 M1.5/ 3.1E-2 12222

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
0712 >1027 <2205 S42E18L346 8
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
SOUTH POLAR CORONAL HOLE ONLY
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 27.11/03 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 12.12.

DECEMBER 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 DECEMBER
Wus 160 146 128 137 097 073 058
F10.7 168 168 154 158 137 129 132
иbcg ч6.7 у1.0 ч7.6 ч7.1 ч5.2 ч6.9 ч5.6 GOES
Sp 1380 1290 1090 1090 820 880 860 mvh
N 1 1 1 2
IMF - - - - - - - буе
Е>2 4.1E+6 2.8е+6 6.3е+6 2.4е+6 5.6е+6 6.0E+6 3.6E+7 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 9 12 9 11 10 13 22 nT
Dst -8 -28 nT KIOTO
Amsc 13 14 8 11 13 12 27 nT IZMIRAN
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Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN 7.11/0231 AND OBSERVED 7.11.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 8-9.11.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS LAST WEEK WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL DAYS
EXCEPT 7.12 WHEN ON THE EARTH THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM WAS REGISTERED
(G1, Ams = 33, dur.= 12 h.) According TO IZMIRAN, AND (G1 - still pro-
ceeds) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDERE. SOURCE OF THIS GEOMAGNETIC
DISTURBANCE WAS A SERIES OF FLARES OCCURENCES ON DECEMBER 4.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru