Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2014/obzor20141103.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Nov 3 13:42:04 2014 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:49:49 2016 Кодировка: Windows-1251 Поисковые слова: enceladus

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OCTOBER 2014 HAS MADE
Woct.= 60.6,
THAT GIVES FOR 61 MONTHS (2014, march) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*mar. = 81.9
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
MAY - JUNE 2014
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 84

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014,
OCTOBER ACCORDING DATA OF 69 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:
1.. 91 6.. 46 11.. 20m 16.. 47 21.. 72 26.. 89 31.. 54
2.. 85 7.. 46 12.. 20 17.. 43 22.. 83 27.. 72
3.. 79 8.. 50 13.. 28 18.. 41 23.. 89 28.. 68
4.. 71 9.. 40 14.. 50 19.. 62 24.. 93н 29.. 62
5.. 60 10.. 24 15.. 60 20.. 74 25.. 92 30.. 69

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2014, OCTOBER
Foct.= 153.4

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, OCTOBER
Ap oct.= 8.6
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 27.10 - 02.11.2014,
Forecast on 03 - 10.11.2014,
Carrington Rotations 2156 (15,00.10.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 058+41/-15. ON THE VI-
SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5 - 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS,
ONE OF WHICH WAS OF GIGANTIC:
AR12192 (S13L252, CMP 23.10.2014, Sp max = 2750 mvh) - has beco-
me the most a large sunspots group current solar cycle and du-
ring the passage made of 6 X flares and 26 - M flares. An inte-
resting feature of these flares almost complete absence of sig-
nificant coronal mass ejection (1 in a flare M4.0 24.10) and suf-
ficiently weak bursts in dm and m wave band that can speak about
closing the magnetic configuration in the place of these flares
- strong magnetic fields?. Hence the absence of SEP, the partic-
les could not get out.

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE AND IN END OF WEEK LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-
FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE-
RAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS-
TEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL AT 27.10; MIDDLE LEVEL - ON
28 -30.10, AND THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS . THERE ARE TWO EJECTIONS
OF THE SOLAR FILAMENTS. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO
WERE OBSERVED 52 CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL GALO III" TY-
PE AND 5 - THE "PARTIAL GALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
27.10 0001 0034 >1022 S14W44L252 3B/M7.1 1.0E-01 12192
27.10 0144 0202 >0211 S14W44L252 M1.0/ 1.3E-02 12192
27.10 0335 0341 >0348 S13W45L252 M1.3/ 7.3E-03 12192
27.10 ~0552 0715 1348 S18W48L252 2B/C9.6 3.7E-03 12192
0959 1009 >1026 2B/M6.7 9.3E-02 12192
27.10 1404 1447 <1531 S17W52L252 2B/X2.0 4.5E-01 12192
27.10 ~1524 1740 0009 S19W56L252 1F/M1.4 8.6E-03 12192
28.10 0215 0242 0427 S14W61L252 M3.4/1B 7.6E-02 12192
0221 0332 0427 S14W61L252 1B/M6.6 5.2E-02 12192
28.10 1354 1406 >1423 S18W72L252 M1.6/SF 2.0E-02 12192
29.10 0603 0820 >0852 S14W81L252 M1.0/SF 7.6E-02 12192
29.10 0954 1001 >1006 S18W77L252 M1.2 5.5E-03 12192
29.10 1419 1433 1507 S16W81L252 SF/M1.4 1.9E-02 12192
29.10 1606 1620 >1633 S14W82L252 M1.0/ 1.2E-02 12192
29.10 1847 1850 >1852 S13W47L252 M1.3/ 1.9E-03 12192
29.10 2118 2122 >2125 S09W88L252 M2.3/ 4.9E-03 12192
30.10 0034 0037 >0040 S14W81L252 M1.3/ 2.7E-03 12192
30.10 0119 0135 >0156 S14W86L252 M3.5/ 4.7E-02 12192
30.10 0417 0428 0439 S16W89L252 M1.2/SF 9.0E-03 12192

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
01.11 >0430 <0705 S28E54L068 >15 C2.7 CME
02.11 >1429 <0700 S27W29l138 7
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LE-
VELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N65L159 N52L128 N06L164 N08L165 03.11 3 SDO,SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 30.10/16 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 5.11.

OCTOBER 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 NOVEMBER
Wus 120 109 084 121 071 082 091
F10.7 188 167 150 140 121 120 124
иbcg у2.6 у2.4 у2.4 у1.3 ч8.5 ч4.9 ч4.2 GOES
Sp 2530 2790 1630 560 170 180 310 mvh
N 1 4 2
IMF + + + +/- - - - буе
Е>2 2.4E+7 3.0е+7 6.2е+7 6.7е+7 5.1е+7 2.2E+7 2.4E+7 GOES
Ie>2 1466 2522 1475 6898 857 pfu GOES
Ap 14 14 9 5 6 6 8 nT
Dst nф KIOTO
Amsc 13 10 8 6 6 7 8 nф IZMIRAN
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Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGINING 29.10/1345 UT AND OBSERVED 29 - 31.10.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NO EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED QUITE AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru