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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 18 - 26.10.2014,
Forecast on 27.10 - 03.11.2014,
Carrington Rotations 2156 (15,00.10.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 067+21/-31. ON THE VI-
SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 2 - 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS,
ONE OF WHICH WAS OF GIGANTIC AR12192 (S13L252, CMP 23.10.2014,
Sp max = 2750 mvh) - it became the biggest sunspot group of the
current solar cycle and already it made four X-flares. It appe-
ars from east limb in the course of continuous emergence of sig-
nificant magnetic fluxes in northwest part of active region which
observed 3 periods of large flares: 1. 19 - 20.10 (36 h.) 1 large
flare; 2. 22.10 (14 h.) - 2; 3. 24 - 26.10 (60 h.) - 3. Now the
sunspot group was stabilized and before emergence of a new magne-
tic flux of large flares won't be still any more. Interesting fe-
ature of large flares in this active region - lack of significant
CME and rather weak burst in dm- and m- ranges of radio waves that
can testify to closeness magnetic configurations in a place of re-
alization of these flares - strong magnetic fields?. From here and
lack of solar proton events, particles can't leave..

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE AND AFTER 30.11 LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FOR-
MING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE
VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL AT 19-20, 22, 25-26.10; MID
DLE LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. THERE IS 3 EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILA-
MENTS. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 34
CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL GALO II" TYPE.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
18.10 0702 0758 0849 S13E71L252 M1.6/SF 6.6E-02 12192
19.10 0417 0503 0548 S14E64L252 X1.1/SN 3.9E-01 12192
20.10 0900 0911 >0920 S14E42L252 M3.9/1N 2.8E-02 12192
20.10 1600 1637 2023 S14E37L252 M4.5/2N 9.9E-02 12192
20.10 1855 1902 1904 S15E46L252 M1.4/ 5.2E-03 12192
20.10 1953 2004 >2013 S14E36L252 M1.7/ 1.5E-02 12192
20.10 2211 2255 0007 S14E36L252 1N/M1.2 1.7E-02 12192
21.10 1335 1338 >1340 S14E35L252 M1.2/ 1.4E-03 12192
22.10 0116 0159 >0228 S13E21L252 M8.7/ 2.1E-01 12192
22.10 0511 0517 >0521 S15E14L252 M2.7/ 1.0E-02 12192
22.10 1402 1428 2230 S14E13L252 X1.6/2B 3.4E-01 12192
22.10 1551 1557 >1603 S11E88L164 M1.4/ 7.5E-03 12197
23.10 0944 0950 >0956 S16E03L252 M1.1/1F 5.3E-03 12192
24.10 0737 0748 >0753 S19W05L252 M4.0/ 2.3E-02 12192 II/1
24.10 2050 2141 0014 S16W21L252 3B/X3.1 8.6E-01 12192
25.10 1338 1708 ~0007 S16W31L252 3B/X1.0 3.9E-01 12192 +(C5.1, C9.7)
26.10 1004 1056 1253 S14W37L252 X2.0/ 3.4E-01 12192
26.10 1708 1717 >1730 S13W38L252 M1.0/ 9.9E-03 12192
26.10 1807 1815 >1820 S14W37L252 M4.2/ 2.3E-02 12192
26.10 1843 1849 >1856 S14W38L252 M1.9/ 1.0E-02 12192
26.10 1959 2021 >2045 S15W45L252 M2.4/ 5.2E-02 12192

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
21.10 >1717 <1745 S20E32L236 10 12192
21.10 >2328 <1344 S24W60L328 8
22.10 2054 2106 S41E17L237 17
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LE-
VELS. LARGE AND POWERFUL FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN AR12192 ONLY IN CASE
OF EMERGENCE OF THE NEW SIGNIFICANT MAGNETIC FLUX.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N18L302 N17L304 S07L312 N05L325 20.10 1 SDO,SOHO....
CH + N45L302 N30L300 N20L308 N30L312 21.10 1 SDO,SOHO....
Possibly it is one very extended CH
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 18.10/1230 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + / - THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 1.11.

OCTOBER 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Wus 060 086 093 120 123 126 147 115 138
F10.7 160 173 185 199 216 227 218 219 217
Хbcg В8.3 С1.2 С1.3 С1.5 С1.5 С1.3 С1.6 С1.8 C1.8
Sp 1560 1850 2430 2790 3120 3090 2820 2810 3020 мдп
N 1 1 1 2
IMF -/+ + + + + + + + +
е>2 7.1E+6 9.7Е+6 7.3Е+6 5.0Е+7 3.2Е+8 2.1E+8 1.6E+8 5.8E+7 4.4E-7
Ie>2 2238 11816 6898 6244 1907 3487 pfu
Ap 15 10 27 15 15 7 10 9 12 нТ
Dst -34 -42 -54 -47 -51 -34 -44 -36 -34 нТ
Amsc 21 11 20 16 15 12 11 7 11 нТ

-------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGINING 21.10/1525 UT AND OBSERVED 21 - 26.10.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 27-28.10.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM WAS ODSERVED 18.10 (G1, Ams=29, длит.=12 ч.) AC-
CORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND 20.10 (G1, Ams = 30, длит.=18 ч.) ACCORDING
BOULDER CENTRE DATA. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTI-
VE AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru