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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 06 - 12.10.2014,
Forecast on 13 - 20.10.2014,
Carrington Rotations 2155, 2156 (17,72.09; 15,00.10.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL
BUT 12.10 IT FALL TO THE LOW. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS
MADE W=36+16/-19. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OB-
SERVED 7 - 2 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELA-
TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK
IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL ON 09 OCTOBER, THE LOW LE-
VEL - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE IS 5 EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENTS.
BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 35 CME, TWO
OF WHICH WERE THE TYPE "PARTIAL GALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
09.10 0129 0143 0217 S15W45L120 1F/M1.3 4.6E-03 12182
09.10 0154 0158 0217 S15W45L120 M1.4/1F 7.6E-03 12182
09.10 0641 0659 0721 S16W46L120 1N/M1.2 7.6E-03 12182

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
06.10 1544 1644 S18E62L047 11 C3.0 2185
08.10 >1456 <0612 N13E02L081 6
10.10 >0957 <2228 N19E10L046 15
10.10 1524 1612 S13W51L107 10 C3.0
08.10 >1456 <0612 N13E02L081 6
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LE-
VELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N43L076 N35L063 N28L068 N38L077 12.10 1 SDO,SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 11.10/10 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. 4-8.10 SIGN OF THE FIELD WAS "-". THE FOLLOWING SEC-
TOR BOUNDERY - / + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 19.10.

OCTOBER 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 OCTOBER
Wus 086 075 061 065 054 038 028
F10.7 130 125 126 119 121 112 111
Хbcg В5.0 В3.8 В3.5 В5.4 В3.0 В3.2 В2.9 GOES
Sp 300 290 320 440 350 390 320 mvh
N 2 3
IMF - - -/+ + + + +/- АСЕ
е>2 1.7E+5 8.6Е+6 6.3Е+6 2.4Е+6 2.8Е+6 4.0E+5 5.6E+5 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 6 5 8 15 7 11 4 nT Ар
Dst nT KИOTO
Amsc 8 6 13 18 8 8 6 nT ИЗМИРАН
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluence e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND ONLY 9.
10 - ACTIVE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru