Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2014/obzor20141006.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Oct 6 11:10:33 2014 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:49:39 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: m 5

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2014 HAS MADE
Wsep.= 87.6,
THAT GIVES FOR 61 MONTHS (2014, march) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*mar. = 80.8
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
MAY 2014
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 82.5

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014,
SEPTEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 71 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:
1.. 65 6.. 96 11..108 16.. 77 21.. 64 26..111
2.. 74 7..111 12.. 85 17.. 83 22.. 68 27..122
3.. 69 8..104 13.. 84 18.. 55 23.. 80 28..130M
4.. 81 9..118 14.. 70 19.. 53m 24.. 73 29..121
5.. 78 10..114 15.. 63 20.. 54 25.. 97 30..120

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2014, SEPTEMBER Fsep.= 146.2

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, SEPTEMBER
Ap sep.= 9.6

Because of abnormally high sunspot-forming activity of a longitu-
dinal interval of L170-L295 the maximum of the current solar cyc-
le continues to be displaced slowly on time and, judging by dyna-
mics of sunspot group number in this interval of longitudes,
will hold on till May, 2014, than will set a record of growth
branch duration for reliable solar cycles.
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 29.09 - 28.09.2014,
Forecast on 29.09 - 05.10.2014,
Carrington Rotation 2155 (17,72.09.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE HIGH AND AVERAGE
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W= 82+18/-19. ON THE
VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 7 - 9 SUNSPOTS GROUPS
ONE OF WHICH WAS A MIDDLE SIZE AND ONE - A LARGE:
AR 12172 (S09L242, Sp max = 570 mvh, comparatively quite). Along
WITH AR12173 (S15L252, Sp max = 130 mvh) FORMED COMPLEX OF ACTIVE
REGIONS.

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPEC-
TED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX-
PECTED W = 050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGHE LEVEL ON 02 OCTOBER, THE LOW LEVEL
- IN OTHER DAYS. THERE IS 3 EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENTЫ. BY DA-
TA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 27 CME, THREE OF
WHICH WERE THE TYPE "PARTIAL GALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
02.10 1710 1744 >1815 S18W76L230 M1.5/SF 3.8E-02 12172
02.10 1849 1901 1925 S18W72L250 M7.3/1F 7.4E-02 12173 II/1 IV/1 CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
02.10 0243 0439 N20W08L170 8
05.10 >0955 <2235 N65W20l142 9
05.10 >0955 <2235 N67W39l142 8
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LE-
VELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - N55L149 N45L139 N29L152 N58L169 05.10 2 SDO,SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 04.10/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. 2 AND 3.10 SIGN OF THE FIELD REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE
FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - / + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 8.10.

SEPTEMBER 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 SEPTEMBER
Wus 160 166 164 105 128 125 106
F10.7 175 162 155 149 137 128 128
Хbcg С1.2 С1.0 С1.2 С1.0 С1.1 В4.5 В4.1 GOES
Sp 1560 1250 770 430 310 370 330 mvh
N 2 3
IMF + + + +/- -/+ +/- - АСЕ
е>2 4.6E+7 1.7Е+7 3.7Е+7 2.9Е+7 2.3Е+7 4.3E+6 1.3E+7 GOES
Ie>2 1496 862 1627 1110 624 395 456 pfu GOES
Ap 10 16 12 8 3 5 5 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 10 12 13 10 6 6 9 nT IZMIRAN
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SEPTEMBER 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 SEPTEMBER
Wus 087 090 076 139 203? 159 200
F10.7 130 138 145 158 170 181 1181
Хbcg B4.7 В5.7 В6.1 С1.0 С1.1 С1.0 С1.3 GOES
Sp 670 830 590 690 1020 1180 1370 mvh
N 1 3 1
IMF + + + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 4.1E+6 4.4Е+6 7.4Е+6 2.3Е+7 1.9Е+7 3.0E+7 3.4E+7 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 9 12 22 14 13 15 9 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 11 12 19 11 16 16 12 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluence e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN AT 26.09/1355 AND OBSERVED ON 26-29.09. THE SECOND INCREA-
SE BEGAN 1.10/1435 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 1 - 2.10.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND ONLY 30.
09 - ACTIVE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru