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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 08- 14.09.2014,
Forecast on 15 - 22.09.2014,
Carrington Rotations 2154, 2155 (21,46.08; 17,72.09.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL BUT
14.09 - THE AVERAGE. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W =
080+19/-8. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED
9 - 6 SUNSPOTS GROUPS TWO OF WHICH WAS A MIDDLE SIZE:
AR12157 (S12L1OO, Sp max = 540 mvh) - appearance of east limb on
September 3 quite developed sunspot group; average level of fla-
re activity.
AR12158 (S12LO85, Sp max = 440 mvh) - appearance of east limb on
September 3 developing sunspot group with due to emergence of the
small sunspots from the South and from the West from the main sun-
spot, formed "necklace"; this dynamics led to occurence of large
proton solar flare 10.09. After 12.09 sharp degradation OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELA-
TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK
IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A HIGH LEVEL ON SEPTEMBER 10, THE MIDDLE - 8,
11 AND 14.09, AND THE LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. THERE ARE 4 EJECTIONS
OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE
OBSERVED 42 CME, 1 OF WHICH WAS THE TYPE OF "GALO", 1 - "PARTIAL GA-
LO III" AND 2-THE "PARTIAL GALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
08.09 2312 0029 0159 N12E29L085 M4.5/1N 2.2E-01 12158 II/1 IV/1 CME
10.09 1659 1745 2240 N14E02L085 2B/X1.6 3.8E-01 12158 II/2 IV/2 CME
11.09 152 1526 1531 N15E88L356 M2.1/ 8.6E-03 12166
11.09 2101 2126 >2130 S17W17L100 M1.4/ 7.0E-03 12166
14.09 0203 0216 0426 S13W49L100 M1.5/2N 2.2E-02 12157

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
11.09 >0938 <2313 S02E10L060 10
12.09 >1618 <0924 S08E47L009 9 12165
12.09 >1618 <0924 N25E42L014 12
13.09 >0940 <2316 N33E27L016 6
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND ON THE AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - S20L022 S40L002 S45L027 S30L032 18.09 1 SDO,SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER 12.09/21 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD, AND FROM 10.09/22 UT WAS IN "+" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING SEC-
TOR BORDER - / + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON SEPTEMBER, 15.

SEPTEMBER 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 SEPTEMBER
Wus 158 162 161 164 157 165 120
F10.7 164 159 160 151 152 145 139
Хbcg B8.8 С1.1 В7.6 В8.7 В6.9 В6.5 В7.2 GOES
Sp 1110 1120 1070 870 790 550 550 mvh
N 2 1 1
IMF - - -/+ + + +/- - АСЕ
е>2 2.2E+6 3.5Е+6 6.8Е+6 2.5Е+6 6.8Е+6 3.1E+5 1.0E+5 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 5 9 8 12 48 13 3 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 7 13 12 11 25 13 4 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THREE CONSECUTIVE SOLAR PROTON EVENTS WERE OCCURED 10-12.09:
Pr>10 MeV: to - 10/2130; tm - 11/0515 -28 pfu;
Pr>10 MeV: to - 11/0240; tm - 12/1550 -126 pfu;
Pr>10 MeV: to - 10/2130; tm - 12/21 -20 pfu; te - 14.09/12 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NO OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET AND UNSETTLED PRIOR TO THE BEGIN-
NING OF SEPTEMBER 12 WHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE EARTH OF THE INTERPLANETA-
RY SHOCK WAVE (SI 11/2356 UT) ARRIVAL, ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOUL-
DER, THE 6-HOUR MAGNETIC SUBSTORM IS NOTED INTENSIVE (G1). AFTER ARRIVAL
OF THE SECOND INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE (SI12/1603 UT) THE MODERATE MAG-
NETIC STORM (G3, Ams=56, dur. = 18 h.). ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA THE SUB-
STORM HAD INTENSITY (G1) AND LASTED 3 HOURS. THE MAGNETIC STORM WAS MI-
NOR (G1, Ams=25, dur.= 18 h.).

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru