Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2014/obzor20140901.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Sep 1 15:55:07 2014 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:49:27 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2014 HAS MADE
Waug.= 74.7,
THAT GIVES FOR 60 MONTHS (2014, FEBUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24
CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*feb. = 78.4
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
II 2014
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 79.5

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014,
AUGUST ACCORDING DATA OF 65 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1..115M 6.. 79 11.. 48 16.. 76 21.. 84 26.. 60 31.. 57
2..115M 7.. 86 12.. 52 17.. 81 22.. 87 27.. 66
3..107 8.. 62 13.. 55 18.. 73 23..105 28.. 57
4..102 9.. 58 14.. 60 19.. 69 24..104 29.. 46
5.. 89 10.. 43m 15.. 75 20.. 71 25.. 81 30.. 53

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2014, AUGUST Faug.= XXX.X

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, AUGUST
Ap aug.= X.X
Maximum of the current solar cycle continues to move slowly over
time and, according to the dynamics of the solar sunspot groups
during the first decade of the month, make it to February 2014,
set a record of the the rising branch duration of the Wolf
numbers reliable series.
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 25 - 31.08.2014,
Forecast on 01 - 08.09.2014,
Carrington Rotations 2154 (21,46.08.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 050+04/-12. ON THE VI-
SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 7 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOTS
GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EX-
PECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS
EXPECTED W = 050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A MIDDLE LEVEL ON AUGUCT 25, AND THE LOW
LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. FOR THE PERIOD SEVEN EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR
FILAMENT. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED
41 CME 1 OF WHICH WAS THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL GALO III" AND 2 -
THE "PARTIAL GALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
26.08 1446 1511 1639 N05Ц36L343 M2.0/1В 3.2E-2 12146 II/2 IV/1 СМЕ
26.08 2006 2021 >2029 N07W43L343 M1.2/1F 3.0E-2 12146

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
25.08 0603 0928 N20W24L318 8
25.08 >1649 <0456 N07W60L354 6
27.08 0315 0402 N13E10L258 6
27.08 >1647 <0500 S21W50L318 11
28.08 >0022 <1324 S23W69L323 17
28.08 >0935 <2310 N33W31L185 10
29.08 >0104 <1306 N01W21L262 7 12149
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND, PROBABLY, ON THE AVE-
RAGE LEVELS. IN AR12152, IN THE CENTRAL ZONE OF THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK,
FOR 3 DAY OF AR DEVELOPMENT, THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX STARTED EMERGING
WHICH, WHEN SAVING THE CHARACTERISTICS, CAN GIVE ON SEPTEMBER 2 - 4.09
SOLAR FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASS.

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, IN SEPARATE DAYS,
AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N08L244 S01L241 S11L254 S12L266 30.08 4 A SDO,SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 24.08/01 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BORDER - / + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS
ON AUGUST 27.

AUGUST 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 AUGUST
Wus 112 081 082 078 073 164 090
F10.7 135 128 123 119 120 123 125
Хbcg B4.8 В4.8 В4.2 B3.5 В3.5 B4.6 В5.1 GOES
Sp 810 710 670 610 470 560 680 mvh
N 1 1
IMF + + + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 8.9E+6 5.7Е+6 5.5Е+4 4.4Е+6 1.8Е+7 4.1E+7 4.1E+7 GOES
Ie>2 1510 1342 pfu GOES
Ap 3 4 21 21 21 17 17 nT Ар
Dst 17 15 -76 -60 -39 -42 -37 nT KИOTO
Amsc 7 8 19 17 14 13 12 nT ИЗМИРАН
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluence e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN 30/1335 UT AND PROCEEDED 31.08.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL ARE EXPECTED 1 - 2.09.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF CENTER IN BOULDER
WAS ACTIVE ON SEPTEMBER 27 - 31, AND 27 -28.08 DISTURBANCE GREW TO LE-
VEL OF THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=28, dur.= 27 h.). THREE SUB-
STORMS ARE NOTED ALSO: 29 (G1 - 9 h.), 30 (G0 -9 h.), AND 31 (G0-6 h.).
BY DATA OF IZMIRAN IS REGISTERED ONLY MINOR MAGNETIC STORM 27 - 28.08
(G0, Ams=23, dur.=21 h.). SOURCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WERE ARRIVAL OF
DISTURBANCE FROM FLARE EVENTS ON AUGUST 24-26 AND PASSING BY THE EARTH
OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. IN
OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION WAS UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru