Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2014/obzor20140421.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Apr 21 14:00:06 2014 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:48:47 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: m 15

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 14 - 20.04.2014 Г.,
Forecast on 21 - 28.04.2014,
Carrington Rotation 2149 (7.36.04.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMINDER AT THE MODERATE LEVEL BEFORE 15.
04 AND THE HIGH LEVEL IN OTHER DAY. ON APRIL 17 THE BIGGEST DAILY
VALUE OF WOLF NUMBER WAS NOTED ~ 178 IN THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE.
AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W =
129+49/-66. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6 - 12
SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS LARGE (АR12036, S10L242, Sp = 510
mvh) AND TWO - MIDDLE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND MODERATE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FOR-
MING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELA-
TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK
IS EXPECTED W=070+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 18.04, AVERAGE - 16.04.AND THE
LOW LEVEL - IN OTHER DAYS. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OBSERVED 5 SOLAR
FILAMENT EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE
OBSERVED 42 CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "HALO" TYPE AND 2 - THE TYPE
OF "PARTIAL HALO II".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
16.04 1954 1959 2020 S14E09L224 M1.0/1N 3.8E-3 12035 II/2
18.04 1231 1303 >1320 S18W33L242 M7.3/ 1.1E-1 12036 II/2 IV/2 CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
14.04 >0954 <2303 S19W07L261 14
16.04 0505 0546 S25W22L250 10
18.04 0616 0649 S29W39L241 9
18.04 0621 0941 S54W84L286 42
20.04 <1035 <1208 S22E10L178 6
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE-
VELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 16.04/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS
21.04.

APRIL 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 APRIL
Wus 105 149 245 296 263 259 192
F10.7 150 162 184 179 172 169 163
Хbcg B6.0 B5.8 В8.7 В8.1 В8.1 В8.1 B8.5 GOES
Sp 790 960 1480 1660 1840 1750 1080 mvh
N 3 2 1 2
IMF - - -/+ + + + + АСЕ
е>2 2.8E+6 1.0Е+7 1.9Е+7 1.4Е+6 1.5Е+6 1.0Е+7 5.7E+6 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 8 6 4 9 7 16 21 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 9 9 9 13 10 17 25 nТ IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE SMALL SOLAR PROTON EVENT WAS REGISTERED 18.04 FROM FLARE M7 18.04:
Pr (>10 MeV): tO-18/1430 UT; tmax - 19/0105 UT: 58 pfu; te - 20/07 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED PRIOR TO THE
BEGINNING OF DAY 19.04 WHEN IT BECAME ACTIVE, AND AFTER ARRIVAL OF THE
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK TO THE ENVIRONMENT (SI-20/1057 UT) FROM FLARE 18.
04 (fast arrival - ~ 22 h.) ON THE EARTH, THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1,
Ams = 38, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING OF IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, Ams=38, dur.=
12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA IS REGISTERED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru