Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2014/obzor20140317.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 17 12:17:49 2014 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:48:37 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 10 - 16.03.2014,
Forecast on 17 - 24.03.2014 ,
Carrington Rotation 2147, 2148 (11,73.02; 11.06.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMINDER AT THE MODERATE LEVELS. THE
AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE
W=078+11/-13. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5-
8 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH (AR12002 (S19L323, Sp = 380 mvh)
HAD THE MIDDLE AREA.

NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND THE MODERATE LEVELS OF SUN-
SPOTFORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA-
LUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=070+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MODERATE LEVEL 10 - 13, AND LOW LEVEL
IN OTHER DAYS. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OBSERVED 10 SOLAR FILAMENT
EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OB-
SERVED 37 CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS OF THE TYPE "HALO" AND FOUR WERE
- “PARTIAL HALO II”.
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
10.03 0019 0026 ~0100 S19E51L323 M1.1/SF 5.9E-3 12002
10.03 0402 0408 >0413 S18E48L323 M1.0/ 3.8E-3 12002
10.03 1521 1528 >1532 S17E41L323 M1.7/ 6.9E-3 12002
10.03 2245 2300 2333 N14W51L051 M1.4/SF 1.2E-3 11996
11.03 0344 0350 0429 N13W55L051 M3.5/1F 1.3E-2 11996
11.03 1158 1207 >1214 S25W86L093 M1.7 1.0E-2 11991
12.03 1055 1105 1139 N13W69L051 M2.5/SN 1.2E-2 11996
12.03 2228 2234 2250 N14W76L051 M9.3/SB 3.1E-2 11996
13.03 1903 1919 >1930 N15W87L051 M1.2 1.2E-2 11996
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
10.03 >0050 <1340 S39W42L046 61
10.03 >0938 <2319 S27E80L280 19
10.03 1854 2009 S20E57L309 25
12.03 >1601 <0608 S11W48L022 9
13.03 >0003 <0154 S18W60L020 6
13.03 1914 2111 S22E24L296 9
13.03 2010 2047 S06W62L022 5 12000
14.03 1454 1746 N14E23L286 14
14.03 1012 1136 S10E90L217 ~10 CME
16.03 0320 0530 S22E55L226 ~10
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE-
VELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + S15L023 S20L017 S20L020 S18L027 12.03 1 SDO, SOHO,....
CH - S37L329 S40L313 S62L314 S39L332 15.03 1 SDO, SOHO,....
CH + N40L299 N38L294 N18L322 N25L327 16.03 5 SDO, SOHO,....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 12.03/23 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS
17.02.

MARCH 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 MARCH
Wus 122 108 145 130 121 141 139
F10.7 152 165 148 148 144 139 136
Хbcg С1.4 C1.4 В7.4 В7.3 В8.0 В5.9 B6.0 GOES
Sp 490 540 890 850 750 1020 930 mvh
N 2 1 2 1 1
IMF - -/+ + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 3.8E+6 2.6Е+6 1.1Е+6 2.7Е+4 3.9Е+4 8.5Е+4 1.5E+5 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 4 3 6 15 5 3 2 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 6 6 7 9 7 4 5 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED
AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru