Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2014/obzor20140303.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 3 12:24:13 2014 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:48:34 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: m 8

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2014 HAS MADE
W feb.= 102.8,
THAT GIVES FOR 61 MONTH (2013, JULY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*june = 69.0
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
XI.2013 - I 2014
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 68 - 75.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014,
FEBRUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 63 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 66Э 6..120 11..111 16.. 72 21.. 95 26..145
2.. 83 7..103 12..113 17.. 74 22..102 27..154э
3.. 96 8..103 13..103 18.. 89 23..111 28..137
4..108 9..103 14.. 91 19.. 88 24..107
5..117 10.. 96 15.. 79 20.. 93 25..120

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2014, FEBRUARY F feb.= 170.3

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, FEBRUARY
Ap feb.= 10.8

In February observed value of Wolf number provided the smoothed
number of relative numbers of sunspots in August, 2013 of W*Сug.
= 69.0 that already on two units exceeded value of the first peak
of February, 2012 and, most likely, will grow to 11 2013, desig-
nating already valid maximum of the current cycle of solar activity.
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 24.02 - 02.03.2014,
Forecast on 03 - 10.03.2014 ,
Carrington Rotation 2147 (11,73.02.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMINDER AT THE HIGH LEVELS. THE AVERAGE
OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=121+46/-27.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6-13 SUNSPOT GROUPS,
TWO OF WHICH WERE THE MEDIUM SIZE:

AR11982 (S11L206, Sp max=560 mvh; 1M) - quiet active region.
сR11991 (S25L093, Sp max= 370 ЭФа) - for the present quiet active
area, 28.02-02.03 emergence of a new magnetic flux in the central
region of sunspot group, however flare activity while at a low le-
vel was observed.

NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND THE MODERATE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-
FORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED W=090+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 25.02, THE MODERATE LEVEL-24,
26, 28.02, 1-2.03, AND LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. WITHIN THE PERIOD
WERE OBSERVED 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORO-
NOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 40 CME, 1 WAS THE TYPE "HALO",
2 WERE “PARTIAL HALO II”.
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
24.02 1103 1117 >1142 S11E88L108 M1.2/SF 1.9E-2 11990 EPL/1203
24.02 1200 1205 >1210 S12W18L137 M1.3/ 5.2E-3 11992
25.02 0039 0049 0210 S12E82L108 X4.9/2B 4.3E-1 11990 II/3 IV/2 CME
26.02 <1452 1501 >1528 S13W44L206 1N/M1.1 7.4E-3 11982
28.02 0044 0048 0056 S24E53L094 M1.1/SN 1.9E-3 11991
01.03 1318 1333 >1340 S12W88L M1.1/ 1.5E-2 ?
02.03 2311 2319 >2326 N15W74L179 M1.1/SF 5.9E-3 11986

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
25.02 >1015 <2255 S35W12L187 5
25.02 >1539 <0636 S48E38L137 6
27.02 >1015 <2301 N19E03L146 7
27.02 >1015 <2301 S23E39L110 5
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE-
VELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Х end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - N03L183 S25L155 S30L168 N00L185 27.02 1 SDO, SOHO,....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A - active.
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AFTER 28.02/1530 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELDS. THE SIGN CHANGED AT 24/20 UT AND 25/12 UT. THE FOLLOWING
SECTORAL BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 3.02.

FEBRUARY 24 25 26 27 28 01 02 MARCH
Wus 205 157 197 227 279 177 170
F10.7 171 174 178 176 171 165 161
шbcg ?9.1 ?1.0 ?9.5 ?9.8 ?9.7 ?9.7 B8.3 GOES
Sp 1250 910 1060 1170 1220 1060 960 mvh
N 1 3 2 1
IMF +/- -/+ + +/- - - - с?х
Х>2 4.9х+6 6.4х+6 1.4х+7 1.0х+7 4.1х+7 1.1E+7 7.2E+6 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 8 4 3 21 13 8 5 nT св
Dst -55 -31 -20 -102 -97 -67 -39 nT KIOTO
Amsc 8 8 4 19 11 8 4 nT IZMIRAN
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Х>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

PROTRACTED SOLAR PROTON EVENT OCCURRENCES 25.02 FROM X4.9/2B SOLAR FLA-
RE EVENTS IN сR11990:
Pr >10 MeV: to 19/0330; max1 23 25/2020; max2 59 pfu-27/1845; max3
103 pfu 28/0845; max4 88 pfu 28/2230 UT; max5 33 pfu 01/2220 UT; -
CONTINUED

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS HAVE REACHED A LEVEL OF MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM
ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN in BOULDER (G2, Ams= 46, dur.=12 h.) AFTER
THE ARRIVAL OF INTERPLANETARY SHOCK (SSC 27/1653 UT) 27.02 FROM FLARE
CLASS X4.9 25.02. ACCORDING IZMIRAN IT WAS MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1,
Ams=39, dur.=12 h.). IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAIN
QUITE AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED
AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru