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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 03 - 10.02.2014,
Forecast on 11 - 18.02.2014,
Carrington Rotations 2146, 2147 (15.39.01; 11,73.02.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT THE HIGH LEVEL ALL PERIOD.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
WAS MADE W=121+24/-20. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSER-
VED 3 - 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE BIG SIZE
AR 11968 (N10L111, Sp max=740 mvh, 6М) - Sunspot group symmetric
relative to the equator with AR11967 shows signs connected with
it, but complexes of active regions at the equator separated sun-
spot groups have not been studied;
AND ONE - THE VERY LARGE:
AR11967(S14L117, Sp max=1510 mvh, M15, including 2 large) -second
rotation AR11944, which produced two proton flares at January; ap-
pearanced due to E-limb 26.01 moderately large sunspots group in
during flare energy release - 69 h. 27 - 29.01 had occurrence 12M
flares, 30.01-large flare M6.6, 1 - 2.02 some more 6M flares and
4 - 7 - 8M flare among which on large - M5.2. It went for W-limb
at the end of the day 9.02 without having changed.

NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND THE MODERATE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-
FORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED W=100+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT HIGH LEVEL 4.02, AT THE MODERATE LEVEL - 4-
7, 9.02 AND THE LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE
OBSERVED 13 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONO-
GRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 77 CME, TWO WERE TYPE “PARTIAL
HALO II” ".
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
04.02 0116 0123 0254 N09W13L108 M3.8/1B 2.5E-2 11968
04.02 0240 0306 >0348 S15W03L113 M1.2/ ------ 11967
04.02 0357 0400 0428 S14W06L113 M5.2/1B 1.8E-2 11967
04.02 0938 0949 >0958 S14W14L113 M1.4/ 1.3E-2 11967
04.02 1455 1602 1712 S12W12L113 1N/M1.5 5.8E-2 11967
05.02 1611 1620 >1642 S10W36L113 M1.3/ 1.8E-2 11967
06.02 2256 2305 >2310 S14W48L113 M1.5/SF 7.7E-3 11967
07.02 0330 0456 0549 S15W50L113 2N/M2.0 1.4E-2 11967
07.02 1025 1029 1045 N09W53L108 M1.9/1N 2.8E-3 11968
09.02 1540 1612 >1652 S16E88L318 M1.0/ 3/2E-2 11976?

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
03.02 >0003 1431 S14W62L158 33
03.02 >1009 <2304 N28E60L036 5
03.02 >1009 <2304 N08W26L122 9
04.02 >1019 <2255 N07W39L109 9
04.02 <1019 <2255 N06W56L126 5
04.02 >1157 <0805 N38W32L102 11
05.02 0303 0748 N38W46L116 13
05.02 0308 0348 S09W17L087 6
05.02 >1033 <2252 S08E50L020 20 11971
05.02 >1524 <1018 S09E55L001 11
06.08 0247 0857 N04E48L008 8
07.02 >1000 <2302 S16E05L038 10 11970
08.02 2022 2031 N04E22L008 3 11973
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE-
VELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - N50L026 N50L000 S08L020 N17L074 8.02 6 G0 SDO, SOHO,....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A - active.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 8.02/20 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH SHOULD
PASS 15.02.

FEBRUARY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FEBRUARY
Wus 168 183 234 223 241 186 180
F10.7 188 188 194! 191 178 172 169
Хbcg С1.6 С2.5 С1.5 С1.1 С1.2 B9.6 С1.1 GOES
Sp 1870 1970 2080 2630 2270 1770 1760 mvh
N 1 3 2
IMF - -/+ + + + +/- - АСЕ
е>2 2.8Е+5 1.2Е+5 1.4Е+5 8.8Е+4 3.8Е+5 6.5E+5 1.2E+7 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 6 4 4 9 10 23 17 nT Ар
Dst -31 -23 -32 -37 nT KIOTO
Amsc 7 5 5 11 12 22 20 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUITE AND UNSETTLED TILL 08.02,
WHEN 7.02 IN 1703 UT TO THE EARTH THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK FROM FLARE
M3.8 4.02 CAME, AND AT THIS TIME THE EARTH CROSSED THE HIGH-SPEED STRE-
AM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM LARGE CORONAL HOLE. THIS HAS RESULTED THE MI-
NOR MAGNETIC STORM AT THE BEGINNING OF DAYS 8.02 (G0,Ams=27, dur.=12 h)
AND SUBSTORM WITH INTENSITY G1 AND DURATION 9 hrs IN EARLY 9.02.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED
AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru