Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20131202.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Dec 2 11:22:44 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:48:03 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: southern cross

--------------------------------------------------------------------
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2013 HAS MADE
Wnov.= 77.6,
THAT GIVES FOR 59 MONTH (2013, MAY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*may = 57.9
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
XII.2013 - IV 2014
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013,
NOVEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 62 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 72 6.. 99 11.. 77 16..125 21.. 49 26.. 25m
2.. 69 7..113 12.. 92 17..131M 22.. 46 27.. 50
3.. 84 8.. 97 13..104 18.. 99 23.. 45 28.. 68
4.. 87 9.. 71 14..118 19.. 77 24.. 49 29.. 67
5.. 83 10.. 69 15..113 20.. 57 25.. 27 30.. 65

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON
2013, NOVEMBER Fnov.= 132.1

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, NOVEMBER
Ap nov.= 7.65
---------------------------------------------------------------------------


Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 25.11 - 01.12.2013,
Forecast on 02 - 09.12.2013,
Carrington Rotation 2144 (21,73.11.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL
SINCE NOVEMBER 2, GRADUALLY INCREASING. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 049+13/-21.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 4-6 SUNSPOT GROUPS
ONE OF WHICH - THE AN AVERAGE AREA.

NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTI-
MATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 060
+30/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT THE THE LOW ALL DAYS. DURING THE CONSI-
DERED PERIOD 3 DSF WERE OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS
DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 51 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO
III" TYPE AND 6 - "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
26.11 >1010 2237 S27E44L250 14
28.11 0104 0228 S08W47L315 17
01.12 0423 0541 S28E03L225 6
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW LE-
VELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
СH - N10L180 N07L185 S05L200 S03L202 07.12 4 G1 SDO, SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation/
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 26.11/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS
1.12.

NOVEMBER 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 NOVEMBER
Wus 052 047 076 100 095 102 104
F10.7 119 116 129 133 129 131 131
Хbcg B4.6 В4.5 B4.6 B5.0 В3.5 В3.5 В3.7 GOES
Sp 200 140 370 800 770 630 650 mvh
N 1 1 2 1 1
IMF - -/+ + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 9.0Е+5 9.5Е+5 9.4Е+5 1.0Е+6 1.1Е+6 8.4E+6 9.8E+5 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 1 1 2 2 5 9 10 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 4 4 5 6 12 12 9 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - the fluxes in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS CHANGING FROM UNSETTLED TO THE LOW.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET
ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 7.12 WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM
SOLAR NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM
NOT LESS THAN 30%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru