Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20131111.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Nov 11 16:24:42 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:47:56 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: sts-64

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 04 - 10.11.2013,
Forecast on 11 - 18.11.2013,
Carrington Rotation 2143 (25,43.10.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE HIGH АND THE
MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=081+15/-27. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK
CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 7-4 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH WERE LARGE
AR11890(S09L173, Sp max = 950 mvh, X/3+M/5) - Came out from behind
the E-limb 1.11 fully developed a large sunspot group . From 3 to
4.11 there was a rapid increase in size and number of spots, and
as a result has produced 5.11 class X3.3 flare. As a result of the
second ascent of a new magnetic flux 5-6.11, 8 and 10.11 produced
twoљflares of X class and gradually began to disintegrate.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MID-
DLE AND THE LOW LEVELS. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE
VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 060+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT THE HIGH LEVEL ON 5, 8 AND 10.11, THE LOW
4 AND 9.11, AND AVERAGE IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD
4 DSF WAS OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE
OBSERVED 46 CME FROM WHICH 2 WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO III" TYPE AND 6
- "PARTIAL HALO II".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
03.11 0516 0522 0540 S12W16L261 M5.0/2B 1.3E-2 11884 CME
05.11 0812 0818 0824 S17E48L170 M2.6/1F 5.4E-3 11890
05.11 1807 0813 >0817 S12E46L170 M1.0/ 1.4E-3 11890
05.11 2207 2212 2307 S12E46L170 X3.3/1B 3.3E-2 11890 CME
06.11 1339 1346 ~1411 S12E37L170 M3.8/1N 1.9E-2 11890
06.11 2344 0002 >0014 s16w90L261 M1.8/SPY 2.1E-2 11884? CME
07.11 0334 0340 0350 S14E28L170 M2.3/SN 5.6E-3 11890
07.11 1415 1425 1441 S13E23L170 M2.4/1N 1.2E-2 11890
08.11 0420 0426 0442 S14E15L170 X1.1/2B 2.8E-2 11890 CME
08.11 0922 0928 0938 S18W24L205 M2.3/1B 4.9E-3 11891
10.11 0508 0514 0536 S14W13L170 X1.1/2B 3.5E-2 11890 CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
04.11 >1443 <1231 S44W34L249 14 AR11885
05.11 0304 0339 N38E57L145 10
06.11 >1002 <2215 S36E25L163 7
08.11 1002 2218 S28W30L192 13
c/p local. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE HIGH,
THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVEKS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N20L223 N18L218 N11L236 N13L238 06.11 7 SDO, SOHO,...
CH - N06L185 S03L178 S08L181 S00L193 09.11 3 SDO, SOHO,...
CH + N50L084 N40L078 N10L116 N20L118 15.11 3 SDO, SOHO,...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 9.11/12 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS, BUT AFTER 6.11/07 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING
SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 17.11.

NOVEMBER 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 NOVEMBER
Wus 151 134 148 159 160 095 090
F10.7 147 149 154 148 146 148 154
Хbcg В6.4 С1.0 B8.8 B6.0 В6.0 В6.7 B8.8 GOES
Sp 1370 1400 1250 1170 1270 980 890 mvh
N 2 2 2
IMF + + +/- - - -/+ + АСЕ
е>2 2.1Е+7 1.3E+7 1.4E+6 6.3Е+5 1.2Е+6 5.8E+6 3.6E+7 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 4 3 3 12 3 17 12 nT Ар
Dst -21 -23 -13 -52 -25 -86 -44 nT KIOTO
Amsc 12 8 6 10 8 19 13 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.
TWO SMALL SOLAR PROTON EVENTS OCCURRED 07.11 AND 8.11:
Pr 07/0205 UT, max 7/0435 UT - 6 pfu, te - 07/1440 UT;
Pr 08/~05 UT, max 10/2325 UT - 1 pfu, is continuing.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WERE NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 13 - 18.11.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS CHANGING FROM ACTIVE to UNSETTLED. MINOR MAG-
NETIC STORM (G0, Ams= 24, dur.= 12 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOUL-
DER DATA AND (G1, Ams = 32, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA REGIS-
TERED 9.11. SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS HIGHSPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR
NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO ACTIVE (11-13.11) DUE TO
THE LARGE SOLAR FLARES IN AR11890 FROM CENTRAL ZONE OF VISIBLE SOLAR
DISC, TO UNSETTLED IN OTHER DAYS. THE PROBABILITY INCREACE OF DISTUR-
BANCE TO THE LEVEL OF MAGNETIC STORM AT LEAST 80%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru