Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20131021.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Oct 21 13:18:12 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:47:52 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: magnetic storm

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 14 - 20.10.2013,
Forecast on 21 - 28.10.2013,
Carrington Rotation 2142, 2143 (28,14.09; 25,43.10.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
WAS MADE W=085+15/-15. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE
WERE 9 - 12 SUNSPOT GROUPS TWO OF WHICH AR11861 (S13L164, Sp max=
410 m.v.h.) AND AR11877 (S11 L009, Sp max=390 м.д.п.) WERE THE MO-
DERATE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE-
RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC-
TED W = 060+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON 15 AND 17.10 AND THE
LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 2 DSF WERE OBSER-
VED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 31 CME
FROM WHICH TWO WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
15.10 0826 0838 0932 S22Ц13L143 M1.8/SN 5.6E-4 11865 III/1 CME
15.10 2331 0725 2354 S23W20L143 M1.3/1F 2.5E-2 11865 III/1 CME
17.10 1509 1541 >1558 S09W63L164 M1.2/ 2.5E-2 11861 CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
17.10 1545 1709 S19E28L168 7
18.10 >1523 >0647 N65E36L047 42 CME
c/p local. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND
THE AVERAGE. NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE
LEVELS. MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS OF OBSERVED SUNSPOT GROUPS DON'T GIVE
THE CHANCE TO ASSUME EMERGENCE OF SIGNIFICANT NEW MAGNETIC FLUXES.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + N18L173 N12L176 S17L176 S00L191 14.10 2 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N05L188 S10L169 N10L170 N05L179 15.10 2 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N50L076 N42L075 N20L101 N48L116 19.10 2 SDO, SOHO..
The last two were one on previous solar rotation.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 14/09 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 15.10.

OCTOBER 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 OCTOBER
Wus 136 148 120 166 154 149 117
F10.7 125 125 128 136 140 133 133
Хbcg B4.6 В6.3 B4.2 B8.6 С1.0 B9.2 В7.5 GOES
Sp 790 860 620 760 930 890 720 m.v.h.
N 2 1 1 3 1 1
IMF -/+ + + + + + - АСЕ
е>2 7.4Е+6 1.1E+7 3.7E+7 1.6Е+8 1.4Е+8 1.9E+8 1.7E+8 GOES
Ie>2 5893 3594 3270 2723 pfu GOES
Ap 13 14 10 8 3 2 3 nT Ар
Dst -42 -48 -27 -25 -15 nT KIOTO
Amsc 19 16 11 11 9 6 6 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN 17.10/0930 UT AND WERE OBSERVED ON OCTOBER 17 - 20.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 21.10.

THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA ON OCTOBER
14-15 (G0, Ams = 23, dur.= 27 h.). ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER SWPC CEN-
TER IT WAS NOTED ONLY GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE. IN OTHER DAYS
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO THE QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL
DAYS. HOWEVER 21 OCTOBER GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
AT PASS BY EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM SOLAR WIND FROM NOTH HEMISPHE-
RE CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY MAGNETIC STORM ABOUT 10%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru