Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20131028.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Oct 28 18:50:00 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:47:53 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 21 - 27.10.2013,
Forecast on 28.10 - 03.11.2013,
Carrington Rotation 2142, 2143 (28,14.09; 25,43.10.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE HIGH LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
WAS MADE W=105+30/-20. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE
WERE 5 - 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS TWO OF WHICH AR11877(S11 L009, Sp max=
390 м.д.п.), AR11882(S08 L293, Sp max=390 м.д.п., Х/2+М/8) AND ONE
BIG AR11875 (N07L027, Sp max=790 м.д.п., X/1+M/8).

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGH
AND AVERAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS
EXPECTED W = 080+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON 24 AND 25.10, THE LOW
- 21.10 AND AVERAGE IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 4 DSF
WERE OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSER-
VED 65 CME FROM WHICH 9 WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
22.10 0014 0022 0030 N06E17L027 M1.8/SF 5.3E-3 11875
22.10 1444 1520 >1528 N07E07L027 SF/M1.0 1.5E-2 11875
22.10 2115 2120 2130 N04W01L027 M4.2/1B 7.5E-3 11875 CME
23.10 2041 2053 0049 N07W07L027 SF/M1.4 5.9E-3 11875
23.10 2330 2341 1528 N07E07L027 SF/M1.0 1.5E-2 11875
23.10 2358 0008 >0016 N06W08L027 M3.1/ 2.5E-2 11875 CME
24.10 0020 0030 0048 S10E08L009 M9.3/1N 4.8E-2 11877 II/1 IV/1 CME
24.10 0942 1009 ~1157 N07W13L027 2B/M2.5 1.7E-2 11875
24.10 1030 1033 >1037 N06W11L027 2B/M3.5 8.0E-3 11875 CME
25.10 0248 0302 >0312 S07E76L027 M2.9/ 2.5E-2 11875 II/2 IV/1 CME
25.10 0753 0801 >0809 S08E73L293 X1.7/ 9.0E-2 11882 II/2 IV/1 CME
25.10 0943 1012 1046 S08E73L293 M1.0/SF 2.1E-2 11882 III/1
25.10 1702 1709 1716 S08E67L293 M1.3/ 8.0E-3 11882
25.10 1451 1503 >1512 S06E69L293 X2.1/ 1.6E-1 11882 II/2 IV/2 CME
25.10 1905 1921 1958 S06E66L293 M2.3/SF 9.1E-3 11882 II/2 IV/1 CME
25.10 2050 2058 2204 S08E64L293 1N/M1.9 1.6E-2 11882
26.10 0559 0606 >0715 S09E61L293 1B/M2.3 1.9E-2 11882
26.10 0917 0937 >0948 S10E58L293 M1.5/ 1.7E-2 11882
26.10 1011 1117 ~1212 S05E58L293 1N/M1.8 3.6E-2 11882
26.10 1924 1927 1938 S09E81L261 M3.1/SF 9.8E-3 11884 CME
26.10 1949 1953 >1958 S08E51L293 M1.0/ 4.1E-3 11882
27.10 1233 1248 >1252 N06W63L027 1F/M3.5 1.6E-2 11875
28/10 0141 0203 0231 N04W66L027 X1.0/2N 8.4E-2 11875
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
21.10 >1428 <0801 N28E03L040 27
22.10 1356 1640 N02W59L059 10
22.10 >0235 <0400 N34E24L006 31
24.10 0015 0023 S09E08L009 5 M9.3 11877 CME
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE HIGH,
THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVEKS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 27/10/0230 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS, HOWEVER AFTER 21.10 THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING SEC-
TORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 2.11.

OCTOBER 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 OCTOBER
Wus 179 228! 141 148 148 171 206
F10.7 136 146 153 161 161 165 167
Хbcg B5.7 В7.1 B8.9 B8.9 С1.1 С1.2 С1.1 GOES
Sp 870 990 1080 1440 1500 1560 1930 m.v.h.
N 2 2 3
IMF +/- - - - - - -/+ АСЕ
е>2 1.8Е+8 1.3E+8 3.4E+7 3.5Е+7 3.7Е+7 3.3E+7 3.6E+7 GOES
Ie>2 3951 2433 pfu GOES
Ap 1 5 3 2 3 2 2 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 8 9 7 10 4 7 5 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN 17.10/0930 UT AND WERE OBSERVED ON OCTOBER 17 - 22.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRONS FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO THE QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL
DAYS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru