Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20131014.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Oct 14 13:05:05 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:47:51 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: m 63

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 07 - 13.10.2013,
Forecast on 14 - 21.10.2013,
Carrington Rotation 2142 (28.14.09.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
WAS MADE W=066+17/-20. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE
WERE 4 - 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH AR11861 (S13L164, Sp max =
380 m.v.h.). THE MODERATE SIZE, THE QUITE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE-
RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC-
TED W = 050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT A AVERAGE LEVEL ON 9, 11 AND 13.10 AND
THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 8 DSF WERE
OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED
42 CME FROM WHICH SIX WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
09.10 0123 0148 >0156 S23E71L143 M2.8/ 2.5E-2 11865 II/1 IV/1 CME
11.10 0701 0725 >0745 N21E87L M1.5/ 2.5E-2 II/2 IV/2 CME
13.10 0012 0043 0105 S22E17L143 M1.7/ 3.1E-2 11865 II/1 CME
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
08.10 >0956 >2237 N35E62L153 25
08.10 >0956 >2237 S08E14L201 18
08.10 1550 2101 N08E08L2207 20
08.10 1907 2120 N24E27L188 47
09.10 >0944 >2227 S40E42L160 4
13.10 >0946 >2318 N27W32L181 15
13.10 >0946 >2318 S39W55L204 15
13.10 >0946 >2318 S36W30L179 5
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND
THE VERY LOW.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N40L178 N38L173 N16L228 N18L233 9-10.10 6 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N18L173 N12L176 S17L176 S00L191 14.10 2 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N05L188 S10L169 N10L170 N05L179 15.10 2 SDO, SOHO..
The last two were one on previous solar rotation.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 12/1130 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY-/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 15.10.

OCTOBER 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 OCTOBER
Wus 076 099 111 138 115 106 125
F10.7 112 112 113 121 129 128 129
Хbcg B3.0 В2.7 B3.1 B4.7 B8.7 B5.9 В5.0 GOES
Sp 170 280 490 670 780 760 920 m.v.h.
N 3 3 1 1 2
IMF + + + + + +/- - АСЕ
е>2 2.2Е+7 1.9E+7 1.8E+6 3.8Е+6 1.7Е+7 3.9E+7 1.9E+7 GOES
Ie>2 1455 pfu GOES
Ap 5 14 26 9 5 5 1 nT Ар
Dst -12 -65 -34 -18 nТ KIOTO
Amsc 9 15 26 9 5 5 6 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN 12.10/1520 UT AND WERE OBSERVED ON OCTOBER 12 ONLY.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 17 - 20.10.

DISTURBANCE FROM FILAMENT EJECTION AT OCTOBER 5 REACHED ON ENVIRON-
MENT SI-8.10/2023 UT AND CAUSED THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM 8-9 OCTOBER
(G1, Ams=34, dur. =12 h. ) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, Ams=41,
dur.=18 h.) ACCORDING BOULDER SWPC CENTRE DATA. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAG-
NETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED
ALL DAYS. HOWEVER 14 - 15.10 GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS POS-
SIBLE AT PASS BY EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR
EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY MAGNETIC STORM ABOUT 20%.

THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE ALL PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru