Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20131007.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Oct 7 12:37:16 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:47:50 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 30.09 - 06.10.2013,
Forecast on 07 - 14.10.2013,
Carrington Rotation 2142 (28.14.09.2013)

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2013 HAS MADE
Wsep.= 36.9,
THAT GIVES FOR 57 MONTH (2013, MARCH) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*march = 57.5
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
XII.2013 - IV 2014
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013,
SEPTEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 50 6.. 33 11.. 41 16.. 17 21.. 52 26.. 37
2.. 61M 7.. 25 12.. 35 17.. 35 22.. 54 27.. 43
3.. 49 8.. 17 13.. 25 18.. 43 23.. 49 28.. 38
4.. 53 9.. 9m 14.. 17 19.. 43 24.. 44 29.. 29
5.. 44 10.. 10 15.. 9m 20.. 61M 25.. 48 30.. 36

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON
2013, SEPTEMBER Fsep.= 102.6

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, SEPTEMBER
Ap sep.= 5.29
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SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
WAS MADE W=036+14/-11. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE
WERE 3 - 5 QUITE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE-
RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC-
TED W = 040+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT A LOW LEVEL ON 1 - 4 AND 6.10 AND THE VE-
RY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 4 DSF WERE OBSER-
VED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 29 CME
FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE "HALO" TYPE AND THREE -"PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
02.10 2256 2326 S13E47L247 1
03.10 >1550 <0551 S07E48L243 7
05.10 >0944 >2233 N38W41L295 16
05.10 1549 1646 N36W55L309 7
c/p local. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND
THE VERY LOW.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N08L347 N03L346 S05L346 S08L356 30.09 2 SDO, SOHO..
CH - N40L178 N38L173 N16L228 N18L233 10.10 6 SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 06/0615 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS
AT 7.10.

SEPTEMBER 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 OCTOBER
Wus 042 049 059 061 084 069 053
F10.7 105 107 108 114 109 106 107
Хbcg B2.5 В3.0 B2.9 B2.9 B2.2 B2.0 В2.1 GOES
Sp 070 180 270 310 370 320 200 m.v.h.
N 1 2 1 1
IMF - - -/+/- - - -/+ + АСЕ
е>2 1.3Е+7 3.5E+7 4.8E+6 2.5Е+7 3.2Е+7 4.1E+7 5.3E+7 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 2 4 27 7 1 1 2 nT Ар
Dst 5 -54 -48 -20 -20 -4 nT KIOTO
Amsc 7 9 50 9 7 7 9 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN 20.09/1220 UT AND WERE NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

AFTER SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA ON SEPTEMBER 29 IN 2143 UT WHICH WAS ACCOM-
PANIED SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS C1.2, ON OCTOBER 2 IN ENVIRONMENT CA-
ME THE SHOCK WAVE (SI 2/0158UT) AFTER WHICH ON THE GROUND OBSERVATORIES
RECORDED INTENSIVE (S2 ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER DATA AND S3
ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA) THE SUBSTORM (DURATION 9 HOURS) AND AT THE
END OF THE DAY WAS OCCURRENCE THE SECOND SUBSTORM (S2) TOO THE LASTING
AT 9 HOURS. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETT-
LED TO THE QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED,
BUT GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE GROWTH ON OCTOBER 10 IS POSSIBLE AT PASS BY
EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NO MORE THAN 10%.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru