Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20130826.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Aug 26 18:21:40 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:47:30 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 19 - 25.08.2013,
Forecast on 26.08 - 02.09.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2140, 2041 (04,64.08; 31,87.08.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM HIGH (19.08) TO
AVERAGE LEVELS, AND IN THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD FELL THE ALMOST
TO THE SMALL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=072+25/-44. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK
CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 10 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE-
RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC-
TED W = 050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT A LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS, EXCEPT THE LAST TWO
DAYS WHEN THE FLARE LEVEL OF ACTIVITY FELL TO THE VERY LOW. DURING
THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 11 DSF WERE OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORO-
NOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 44 CME FROM WHICH 1 WAS "HALO"
TYPE AND 3 WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
19.08 0429 0634 S32W44L206 7
19.08 >0929 <2320 S43W50L212 15
20.08 0400 0829 S46E21L128 51
20.08 >0900 <0928 S32W35L184 51
21.08 0021 0214 N19W70L206 18
21.08 0304 0444 S16E11L125 8
24.08 0028 0212 S13W23L119 7
24.08 >1412 >0542 S23W18L114 6
25.08 0542 0841 N40W04L087 8
25.08 >0926 <2325 S20E25L058 8
25.08 >1418 <0610 N16W59L142 8
c/p local. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND SOMETIME AVE-
RAGE LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH N22L165 N10L171 S09L180 S00L184 21.08 4 SDO, SOHO..
CH S25L147 S33L144 S36L151 S29L166 23.08 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH N29L127 N10L122 N08L127 N15L132 25.08 3 SDO, SOHO..
CH N45L038 N40L030 N10L058 N32L068 30.08 5 SDO, SOHO..
CH S05L050 S10L048 S15L052 N32L058 31.08 1 SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbances in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 21.08/14 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. 25-26.08 THE IMPREGNATION + SECTORS IS NOTED. THE FOLLO-
WING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 05.09.

AUGUST 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 AUGUST
Wus 161 115 149 125 127 101 046
F10.7 128 132 130 132 124 117 113
Хbcg В4.2 B4.8 В5.0 B5.9 B5.0 B3.9 B3.6 GOES
Sp 1030 740 730 480 420 350 260 m.v.h.
N 1 3 1 1 2
IMF - - -/+ + + + +/- АСЕ
е>2 2.8Е+8 2.6E+8 1.4E+7 1.8Е+7 3.7Е+7 1.3E+8 6.6E+7 GOES
Ie>2 6050 5339 4274 752 1857 3575 1871 GOES
Ap 5 4 20 14 16 7 7 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc - 11 20 18 - - 10 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN 16.08/1800 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 19 - 21.08. NEW INCREASE
IS NOTED 23.08/1500 UT AND HIGH VALUES WERE OBSERVED ON AUGUST 24-25.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT 30.08 - 01.09.

MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 27, dur.= 12 h.) WAS REGISTERED
21 - 22 AUGUST ACCORDING BY DATA OF THE IZMIRAN. ACCORDING CENTRE IN
BOULDER DATA THE DISTURBANCE WAS 9-HOUR MAGNETIC SUBSTORM (G0). IN
OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED
ALL DAYS EXCEPT, PROBABLY, 30 - 31.08 WHEN EARTH WILL PASS HIGH-SPEED
STREAMS FROM THE LAST IN THE TABLE CORONAL HOLES.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru