Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20130715.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jul 15 11:53:14 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:47:16 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: storm

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 08 - 14.07.2013,
Forecast on 15 - 22.07.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2139 (08,42.07.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL,
GRADUALLY INCREASING. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 055+31/-15. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR
DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 2 - 6 QUITE SUNSPOTS GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS
LARGE: AR11785 (S11E24L008, Sp=720 m.v.h.)

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE-
RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS
EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONO-
GRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED MORE 22 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE
HALO TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
08.07 >0111 <1337 S14E19L301 6
08.07 >0918 <2352 N51E48L259 28 CME/1524/H/074
08.07 >2318 <1620 S40E26L294 16
13.07 >1637 <0619 S32W47L328 9
14.07 >0920 <0016 N41E06L262 6
c/p local. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH ? N40L224 N39L174 N15L244 N20L252 18.07 3 SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 06.07/0530 TO 07.07/17 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLA-
NETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + THE EARTH
SHOULD TO PASS 12.07.

JULY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 JULY
Wus 143 098 076 085 087 066 088
F10.7 119 120 118 113 118 114 113
Хbcg В4.0 В3.5 B3.9 B4.0 В4.1 B3.8 B4.0 GOES
Sp 790 720 440 350 230 260 310 m.v.h.
N 2 1 3
IMF + + + +/- - - - АСЕ
е>2 9.7Е+6 1.1E+7 3.3E+7 1.1Е+8 6.9Е+8 2.6E-8 6.3E-7 GOES
Ie>2 1958 3338 22470 16728 4433 GOES
Ap 5 9 27 19 9 10 21 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 8 14 23 17 13 13 25 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN AT 23/0230 UT AND OBSERVED 10 - 14.07.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 10-11 AND 14 JULY WAS ACTIVE. MINOR GEOMAGNETIC
STORM (G1, Ams = 33, dur.= 15 h.) WAS REGISTERED ACCORDING BY DATA OF
THE CENTER IN BOULDER. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA THE SUBSTORM (G1) LAS-
TING 6 HOURS WAS OBSERVED. THE SECOND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1) IS
NOTED 14 - 15.07 IT PROCEEDS AT THE TIME OF REVIEW WRITING. IN OTHER
DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION WILL CHANGE FROM ACTIVE (ON JULY
18-19) TO THE QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru