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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 02 - 09.06.2013,
Forecast on 10 - 17.06.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2137, 2138 (15,02.05; 11,23.06.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE AND ONE
DAY 8.06 THE LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 041+18/-25. ON THE
VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 5 - 2 OF SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE
OF WHICH AR11762 (S30L130, Sp max = 540 м.д.п) FOR ONE DAYS 05.06
BECAME LARGE (NEW MAGNETIC FLUX EMERGENCE 4-5.06). AS A RESULT 07.06
IN THIS AR, BEING NEAR THE WESTERN LIMB, THERE WAS OCCURRENCE LARGE
SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M5.9.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE
LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
W=040+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL AT 07.06, THE AVERAGE - AT 05.06,
THE LOW LEVEL - AT 3, 8, 9.06 AND THE VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE
WERE 5 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS OBSERVED IN THIS PERIOD. BY SOHO
AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 38 CME FROM WHICH
ONE WAS THE TYPE OF "HALO", AND 2 WERE THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL GALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
05.06 0814 0857 1012 S32W51L130 M1.3/1F 3.4E-2 11762 IV/1 CME/pHIII
07.06 2211 2249 >2304 S32W89L130 M5.9/ 6.8E-2 11762

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
02.06 1335 1612 N19W15L124 7
02.06 1709 1754 N03W37L146 9
03.06 0445 0711 S45W24L113 11
05.06 0024 0138 N34E17L053 7
06.06 >2235 <1243 N23W74L130 14
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH ? N48L077 N38L071 N20L079 N35L097 06.06 2 SDO, SOHO..
CH ? S05L077 S15L057 S20L089 S05L104 07.06 2 SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 01.06/01 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 12.06.

JUNE 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 JUNE
Wus 076 099 059 081 071 086 027 041
F10.7 111 112 110 109 109 110 103 096
Хbcg В2.8 В2.7 B2.7 B2.6 В2.4 В2.5 В2.2 В1.7 wt/m-2
Sp 290 460 390 680 510 460 200 220 m.v.h.
N 1 2 1
IMF + + + + +/- -/+ + + АСЕ
е>2 1.3Е+8 3.8E+8 1.3E+9 6.4Е+8 1.4Е+8 1.1Е+8 1.3Е+8 1.6Е+8 GOES
Ie>2 4708 12708 31835 30461 4095 2815 3829 GOES
Ap 11 9 9 6 17 30 10 10 nT Ар
Dst -51 -35 -27 -31 -70 -77 -28 -18 nT КИОТО
Amsc 13 13 9 12 21 20 11 16 nT ИЗМИРАН
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е>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED 02 - 09.06.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 10-12.06 .

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAGNETIC STORM. 06-07.
06 THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM REGISTERED (G1; Ams=35; dur.=18 h.) ACCOR-
DING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, Ams=39; dur.=21 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER
IN BOULDER. LIKELY SOURCES OF THAT DISTURBANCE WERE A SOLAR FILAMENT
EJECTA AT 02.06, WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY CME "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE
AND THE HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM A CORONAL HOLE IN SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WHICH EARTH WAS PASSED. OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITI-
ON REMAINED UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru