Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20130602.en.txt Дата изменения: Sun Jun 2 18:29:14 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:47:02 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: sojourner

THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2013 HAS MADE

W may= 78.7,

THAT GIVES FOR 49 MONTH (2012, NOVEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-

LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER

W*oct.= 59.7

THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8

THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-

XI.2012 - IX 2013

THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75.



THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013,

MAY ACCORDING DATA OF 72 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE



1.. 93 6.. 71 11.. 88 16..135M 21.. 74 26.. 63 31.. 33m

2.. 68 7.. 76 12.. 93 17..120 22.. 86 27.. 60

3.. 64 8.. 80 13..100 18.. 87 23.. 71 28.. 51

4.. 80 9.. 76 14..105 19.. 83 24.. 71 29.. 47

5.. 72 10.. 82 15..113 20.. 73 25.. 77 30.. 48



THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON

2013, MAY F may. = 131.4



THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, MAY

Ap may. = 9.04



Values of smoothed Wolf numbers it is sure increase, designating

SECOND peak of the current solar cycle development. If it appears

greatest of several (in their 14th solar cycle was 4 and the maxi-

mum fell on the second), it and there will be a maximum 24 cycles

of solar activity.

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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

Highlights on 27.05 - 01.06.2013,

Forecast on 02 - 10.06.2013,

Carrington Rotations 2137 (15,02.05.2013)



SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL.

WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=043+14/-1. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CON-

STANTLY THERE WERE 6 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.



NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE

AND THE LOW LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF

SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC-

TED W = 050+20/-10.



FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVEREGE LEVEL 31 MAY, THE LOW - 30.05 AND THE

VERY LOW - ON OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE 2 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS OB-

SERVED IN THIS PERIOD. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE

OBSERVED 38 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE TYPE OF "HALO", AND 2 WERE THE

TYPE OF "PARTIAL GALO II".



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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME

X / opt. J/m-2

31.05 1952 2000 2021 N13E43L098 M1.0/SB 3.3E-2 11760



DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME

29.05 >0051 <1236 N11E16L174 12

01.06 1655 1751 S28w20L142 7

c/p local. - central part localization

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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVEL.



ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:

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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories

CH + N16L156 N15L138 S15L156 S10L163 01.06 3 SDO, SOHO..

CH ? N48L077 N38L071 N20L079 N35L097 06.06 2 SDO, SOHO..

CH ? S05L077 S15L057 S20L089 S05L104 07.06 2 SDO, SOHO..

R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;

EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.

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AFTER 01.06/01 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC

FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY ± THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 12.06.



MAY 27 28 29 30 31 01 ИЮНЬ

Wus 087 075 083 071 058 060

F10.7 110 105 107 104 102 107

Хbcg В3.1 В2.6 B2.7 B2.7 В2.3 В2.2 wt/m-2 GOES

Sp 430 320 230 140 120 130 m.v.h.

N 1 2 2

IMF - - - - - -/+ АСЕ

е>2 1.6Е+9 2.1E+9 2.5E+9 2.1Е+9 1.5Е+9 4.3Е+6 GOES

Ie>2 33143 49652 38236 35365 32225 17174 GOES

Ap 13 8 2 3 10 55 nТ Ар

Dst -34 -59 nТ KIOTO

Amsc 20 13 10 10 15 37 нТ IZMIRAN

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е>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.

Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary

orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events

> 1000 p.f.u.



THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH

LEVEL WAS OBSERVED 27.05 - 01.06.



THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH

LEVEL IS EXPECTED 02-08.06 .



GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAGNETIC STORM. 27 MAY.

THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM REGISTERED (G0; Ams = 27; dur = 12 h) ACCORDING

IZMIRAN DATA. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-

TION DURING THOSE HOURS WAS ACTIVE. 31 MAY, AT THE END OF THE DAY, AFTER

COMING TO EARTH INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE (SI 31/1618), WAS REGISTERED

THE MAGNETIC STORM, WHICH, ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA, WAS MODERATE (G1; Ams

=45; dur.=18 h.). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOUDER THIS MAGNTTIC STORM

IS A MAJOR (G2; Ams= 73; dur.=15 h.). LIKELY SOURCES OF THAT DISTURBANCE

WERE A SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA AT 29.05, WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY CME "PAR-

TIAL HALO II" TYPE AND THE HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM A LARGE NEAR

EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE WHICH EARTH WAS PASSED. OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC

CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED



NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.



HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA

OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,

OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -

SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,

OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru