Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20130527.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon May 27 11:27:49 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:47:00 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: бгпву вжнвпжкаехмву впровнку

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 20 - 26.05.2013,
Forecast on 27.05 - 03.06.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2137 (15,02.05.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM THE AVERAGE TO HIGH
AND BACK TO THE AVERAGE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 065+6/-10.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 7 - 5 SMALL SUNSPOTS
GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 22 MAY, WHEN IN AR11745 (N11L340,
Spmаx=550 м.д.п.; M/3) NEAR W-LIMB OCCURRED LARGE PROTON FLARE X-RAY
CLASS M5.0. The AVERAGE LEVEL IS NOTED 20 MAY AND THE LOW - ON OTHER
DAYS. THERE WERE 3 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS OBSERVED IN THIS PERIOD.
BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 48 CME FROM
WHICH 4 WERE THE TYPE OF "HALO", 1 -"PARTIAL GALO III" AND 2 WERE THE
TYPE OF "PARTIAL GALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
20.05 0516 0525 >0603 N09E89L204 M1.7/ 3.3E-2 11755 ?
20.05 0445 0525 >0600 N09E89L216 M1.8/ ? 11753 ?
22.05 1235 1332 1555 N15W70L340 3N/M5.0 1.4E-1 11745 II/2 IV/1 CME/H

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
20.05 >0845 <2336 N30E44L237 7
23.05 >0850 <2334 N30E44L217 8
24.05 0204 0338 S34E28L200 5
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - S30L304 S40L279 S50L289 S38L314 21.05 2 SDO, SOHO..
CH - N48L249 N35L211 N20L261 N25L266 25.05 4 SDO, SOHO..
CH ? N55L216 N50L201 N28L233 N30L259 25.05 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N16L156 N15L138 S15L156 S10L163 01.06 3 SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 14.05/00 UT EARTH WAS PASSED IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. ON MAY 19-21 THE FIELD SIGN REPEATEDLY CHANGED.
THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 31.05.

MAY 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 MAY
Wus 113 119 107 117 099 107 092
F10.7 132 125 133 135 127 121 120
Хbcg В7.0 В5.5 С1.0 B6.5 В4.5 В3.9 B3.8 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 590 670 780 710 570 680 550 m.v.h.
N 2 2 1 1
IMF -/+ +/- - - - - - АСЕ
е>2 2.2Е+6 2.9E+6 1.6E+7 2.0Е+8 5.9Е+7 2.3Е+7 3.0E+8 GOES
Ie>2 722 3950 2603 1563 11636 GOES
Ap 7 6 13 8 18 35 19 nТ Ар
Dst -34 -59 -48 nТ KIOTO
Amsc 14 10 15 12 28 23 26 nТ IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE LARGE SPE WAS OCCURRENCED AFTER THE LARGE FLARE M5.0:
Pr(>10 MeV): to-22/1420 UT; tmax-22/0650 -1660 p.f.u.; te - 25/24 UT

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED 23 - 26 MAY.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 27-29.05 .

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO THE MINOR MAGNETIC
STORM LEVEL. 24-26 MAY ACCORDING DATA OF BOULDER CENTER WAS REGISTERED
THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1; Ams=33; dur.=39 h.). ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN
DATA IT THERE WERE TWO MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS (G1; Ams= 32; dur.= 18 h.)
And (G0; Ams=29; dur.=36 h.). PROBABLE SOURCE OF THE 1-st MAGNETIC STORM
- SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY CME OF TYPE "PARTIAL
GALO III" 21/0224 UT. THE SECOND STORM WAS A CONSEQUENCE OF DISTURBATION
ARRIVAL FROM LARGE PROTON FLARE AND PASSING BY OUR PLANET OF THE SOLAR
WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE OF SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK CAME TO EARTH OF 25/1820 UT. ON SPACE OBSERVA-
TORY ACE (1.5 MILLION KM FROM EARTH) IT WAS MARKED OUT 25/1735 UT. IN
OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru