Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20130506.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon May 6 13:45:21 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:55 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п п п п

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2013 HAS MADE
W apr.= 72.4,
THAT GIVES FOR 48 MONTH (2012, OCTOBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*oct.= 58.6
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
XI.2012 - IX 2013
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013,
APRIL ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 53 m 6.. 76 11.. 85 16.. 63 21.. 63 26.. 71
2.. 66 7.. 85 12.. 84 17.. 64 22.. 60 27.. 72
3.. 68 8.. 82 13.. 79 18.. 57 23.. 55 28.. 69
4.. 63 9.. 92 14.. 74 19.. 59 24.. 66 29.. 95
5.. 77 10.. 94 15.. 63 20.. 61 25.. 75 30..101 M

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON
2013, APRIL F apr. = 124.8

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, APRIL
Ap apr. = 5.45

Values of smoothed Wolf numbers it is sure increase, designating
SECOND peak of the current solar cycle development. If it appears
greatest of several (in their 14th solar cycle was 4 and the maxi-
mum fell on the second), it and there will be a maximum 24 cycles
of solar activity.
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 29.04 - 05.05.2013 ,
Forecast on 06.04 - 13.05.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2136 (17,78.04.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM THE AVERAGE TO THE
HIGH LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI-
ONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 082+13/-21. ON THE VISIBLE
SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 5- 9 SUNSPOTS GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH
WAS A BIG (AR11734, S19L134, Sp max= 590 m.v.h., on 04.05), BUT AL-
READY 5.09 IT PASSED TO THE CATEGORY OF AVERAGES SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE
AND THE HIGH. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
W = 060+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL AT 03 MAY, THE AVERAGE LEVEL AT
02, 03 AND 04.05 AND THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE 3 EJECTION OF
SOLAR FILAMENTS OBSERVED IN THIS PERIOD. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONO-
GRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 51 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE TYPE OF
"PARTIAL GALO III" AND FIVE WERE THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL GALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
02.05 0458 0510 0527 N10W26L189 M1.1/1N 8.8E-3 11731 II/2 CME
03.05 1639 1655 >1722 N10W38L189 M1.3/2N 2.5E-2 11731
04.05 1724 1732 1745 N16E81L075 M5.7/SF 4.1E-2 11739 II/1 CME/II
05.05 1742 1744 >1817 N11E46L075 M1.4/ 3.0E-3 11739

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
29.04 >0108 <1308 S21E04L198 8
03.05 >00921 <2341 N14T69L080 15
04.05 0220 0315 N13E09L127 5
c/p local. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS.
AR11739 DREW UP THE FLARE ENERGY AND IF THERE IS NO NEW EMERGENCE
OF THE BIG MAGNETIC FLUX, SIGNIFICANT FLARES IT IS POSSIBLE NOT TO
EXPECT.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N18L205 N08L197 N05L205 N10L210 02.05 2 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH + S30L180 S40L150 S45L177 S32L188 03.04 3 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH + N18L165 N13L160 S10L170 N10L175 05.05 2 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH ? N48L094 N42L089 N30L107 N35L111 09.05 1 KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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WITH 23.04/1830 TO 05.05/15 UT EARTH WAS PASSED IN "-" SECTOR OF THE
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - THE
EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 11-12.05.

APRIL 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 MAY
Wus 136 165 151 102 139 156 103
F10.7 142 154 159 149 148 142 137
Хbcg В7.3 В6.7 В7.8 B6.Щ В6.5 В6.4 B5.9 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 860 1380 1220 1110 1150 1080 800 m.v.h.
N 2 1 3 1
IMF - - - - - - -/+ АСЕ
е>2 7.6Е+7 7.4E+7 6.7E+5 2.9Е+6 2.9Е+7 8.8Е+7 1.6E+7 GOES
Ie>2 1529 1972 802 759 1906 2960 990 GOES
Ap 4 7 21 12 5 4 7 nТ Ар
Dst -19 -15 -76 -64 -34 -36 -37 nТ KIOTO
Amsc 11 11 31 11 9 9 12 nТ IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN 27.04/0915 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 27.04 - 01.05. THE FOLLOWING
INCREASE BEGAN 03/1120 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 3-4.05.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=38, dur.=18 h. ) ACCORDINGTO IZMIRAN
DATA WAS OBSERVED AT MAY, 1. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA
THE PARAMETERS OF THIS MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams= 24, dur.= 24 h.). THE
GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WAS CAUSED OF SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM
FROM SOLAR CORONAL HOLE OF THE NORTHERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE ON WHICH PRO-
BABLY THE DISTURBANCE FROM EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT ON 26.04, ACCOM-
PANIED RATHER SLOW, BUT POWERFUL CME WAS IMPOSED. IN OTHER DAYS THE
GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru