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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 25 - 31.03.2013,
Forecast on 01 - 08.04.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2135 (21,5.03.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM THE LOW TO THE AVERA-
GE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=035+15/-14. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK
CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT FROM 3 TO 6 QUIET GROUPS OF THE SUNSPOTS, ONE,
NEAR EAST LIMB, THE AVERAGE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND
AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W =
050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS
DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 48 CME, AND 1 OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO II".

--------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
28.03 >0933 <2318 S15Е66L188 6
29.03 0254 0400 S19E69L172 5
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE
AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - S48L269 S52L264 S58L266 S50L296 28.03 2 SDO, SOHO..
CH - N40L284 N28L279 N22L284 N30L287 29.03 2 SDO, SOHO..
CH - N10L282 N03L277 S12L279 S02L286 29.03 1 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH - N22L263 N15L258 N05L296 N10L300 30.03 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH - S23L221 S33L216 S34L217 S25L228 03.04 3 SDO, SOHO..
CH - N50L179 N30L177 N18L195 N33L215 04;7.04 2 SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
WITH 24.03/10 TO 27/11 UT UT EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD TO
PASS 02-03.04.

MARCH 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 MARCH
Wus 056 041 035 049 073 070 083
F10.7 093 092 093 099 101 105 113
Хbcg В1.0 В1.2 В1.0 B1.8 В2.6 В2.7 B2.6 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 170 140 100 170 280 480 630 m.v.h.
N 1 1 2 2 1 1
IMF + + - +/- - - - АСЕ
е>2 7.3Е+7 8.1E+7 1.0E+7 3.9Е+7 9.7Е+6 7.0Е+7 1.7E+8 GOES
Ie>2 1611 1461 1163 1229 577 1535 3680 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 4 2 15 8 22 18 5 nТ Ар
Dst -24 -16 -31 -39 -59 -53 -32 nТ KIOTO
Amsc 7 7 21 10 22 17 8 nТ IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS REGISTRED BY THREE SEPARATE FLUXES WITH BEGINNINGS 25/1215,
28/1530, 30/1335 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 25 - 28, 30 - 31.03.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 1 - 5.04.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE DISTURBANCE TO THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM LE-
VEL ON MARCH 27-28 (G1, Ams=24, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER
CENTER DATA AND (G2, Ams=28, dur.= 5 h. ) BY DATA IZMIRAN. ON MARCH 29
-30 ON IZMIRAN'S DATA ONE MORE THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, by Ams=31,
dur.=18 h.) WAS REGISTERED. ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA - (G1,
Ams =29, dur.=12 h.). In OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED
UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
HOWEVER 4 AND 6-7 APRIL THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru