Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20130304.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 4 12:27:18 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:39 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBUARY 2013 HAS MADE
W feb.= 38.0,
THAT GIVES FOR 44 MONTH (2012, AUGUST) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*aug= 58.1
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
XI.2012 - IX 2013
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 68 - 75.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013,
FEBUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 40 6.. 27 11.. 35 16.. 25 21.. 49 26.. 33
2.. 45 7.. 39 12.. 40 17.. 45 22.. 42 27.. 36
3.. 50 8.. 37 13.. 24 18.. 68 23.. 31 28.. 44
4.. 24 9.. 38 14.. 22 19.. 71M 24.. 19m
5.. 26 10.. 30 15.. 26 20.. 67 25.. 32

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON
2013, FEBUARY F feb. = 104.3

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, FEBUARY
Ap feb. = 5.48

Values of smoothed Wolf numbers for the 6th month of falling after
February, 2012 began to increase a little, designating the first peak
of the current solar cycle development. If it appears greatest of se-
veral (in their 14th cycle was 4 and the maximum fell on the second)
it and there will be a maximum 24 solar cycles that is IMPROBABLE as
in low (W*<80) reliable solar cycles (12, 14, 16) while length of a
growth branch was more than 4 years.

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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 25.02 - 03.03.2013,
Forecast on 04 - 11.03.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2134 (22,18.02.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 044+25/-15. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE
SUN CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 3-5 QUIET SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE-
RAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
W = 040+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT 2.02 ON LOW LEVEL AND ON VERY LOW IN OTHER
DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 57
CME, THREE OF THEM WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE AND ONE - "PAR-
TIAL HALO III" .

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
Xray opt J/m-2

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
25.02 1007 1422 S23W24L331 7
27.02 0847 >1357 S13W33L214 11
28.02 0001 0304 N09E67L201 3
01.03 0920 1125 S68W13L267 12
02.03 >0600 <0655 s17W23L264 5
03.03 0716 1127 S26W31L259 10
c/p local. - central part localization
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - S25L289 S37L281 N35L282 S23L297 28.02 1 KP, SDO SOHO...
CH - N15L287 S02L269 S10L284 N10L289 02.03 1 KP, SDO SOHO...
CH + N50L233 N40L193 N28L220 N35L233 06.03 4 KP, SDO SOHO...
CH - S20L233 S40L225 S42L233 S22L243 06.03 2 KP, SDO SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 20.02/08 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. HOWEVER 28.03 WITH 02 TO 2030 UT IT IS NOTED "+" SECTOR. THE
FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 5.03.

FEBRUARY 25 26 27 28 01 02 03 MARCH
Wus 059 049 061 063 088 090 115
F10.7 095 099 102 106 113 111 112
Хbcg В2.2 В1.8 B2.0 B2.7 В2.7 В2.9 B2.7 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 110 250 250 370 460 500 520 m.v.h.
N 3 1 2
IMF - - - -/+/- - - - АСЕ
е>2 9.8Е+6 2.1E+6 1.5E+6 8.4Е+5 1.0Е+6 9.9Е+7 2.2E+8 GOES
Ie>2 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 2 4 3 5 28 12 8 nТ Ар
Dst КIОТО
Amsc 8 7 5 13 29 11 10 nТ IZMIRAN
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e>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL BEGAN AT 02/1040 AND WAS OBSERVED 2 - 3.03.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 4 - 8.03.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED BY END OF DAY 28.02,
WHEN THERE IS RECORDED MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 28, dur.= 27 h.)
ACCORDING BOULDER DATA AND (G1, Ams=29, dur.=27 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF
BOULDER CENTER. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED
AND QUITE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru