Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20130225.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Feb 25 13:38:18 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:37 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: comet tail

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 18 - 24.02.2013,
Forecast on 25.02 - 03.03.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2133, 2134 (25,84.01; 22,18.02.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW
LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=047+23/-32. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CON-
STANTLY THERE WERE 7-2 QUIET SUNSPOTS GROUPS FROM WHICH ONE, FORMED ON
THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE 18.03 AND LEFT IT FOR THE WESTERN LIMB 23.02, WAS
THE AVERAGE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND
AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W =
030+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS
DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 39 CME.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
Xray opt J/m-2

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
18.02 >1026 <2226 S32W24L067 18
19.02 0147 0548 N29W12L042 8 CME/0436
19.02 1703 1939 S38W10L053 29
19.02 1006 2310 S22W10L040 41
21.02 0313 0333 N28W07L011 8
22.02 0348 0429 N34E69L278 17
22.02 >1332 <0639 N41E32L315 6
23.02 >0038 <1402 S51E37L283 5
23.02 >0038 <1402 S51E37L297 10
c/p local. - central part localization
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + N35L028 N30L020 N35L022 N30L032 22.02 1 KP, SDO SOHO...
CH - S43L359 S55L321 S61L324 S45L012 24.02 1 KP, SDO SOHO...
CH - S25L289 S37L281 N35L282 S23L297 28.02 1 KP, SDO SOHO...
CH - N15L287 S02L269 S10L284 N10L289 02.03 1 KP, SDO SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 20.02/08 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 18.02.

FEBRUARY 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 FEBRUARY
Wus 092 117 106 075 079 056 025
F10.7 105 112 114 109 107 100 095
Хbcg В1.5 В3.6 B3.2 B2.7 В2.3 В3.8 B2.9 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 400 460 650 660 530 440 060 m.v.h.
N 1 1
IMF + + +/- - - - - АСЕ
е>2 6.3Е+5 6.7E+5 6.9E+5 7.4Е+5 1.4Е+6 2.0Е+6 4.7E+6 GOES
Ie>2 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 4 5 5 5 9 6 3 nТ Ар
Dst КIОТО
Amsc 8 9 8 13 13 11 7 nТ IZMIRAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------
e>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
HOWEVER ON MARCH, 2 EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR
NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE
IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 20%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru