Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20130203.en.txt Дата изменения: Sun Feb 3 13:13:49 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:30 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: antarctica

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2013 HAS MADE
Wjan.= 62.9,
THAT GIVES FOR 43 MONTH (2012, JULY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*july= 57.7
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
XI.2012 - IX 2013
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013,
JANUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 38 6.....20m 11.. 34 16.. 47 21.. 43 26.. 41 31.. 64M
2.. 34 7.....22 12.. 48 17.. 53 22.. 56 27.. 39
3.. 32 8.....36 13.. 49 18.. 43 23.. 57 28.. 38
4.. 39 9.....30 14.. 43 19.. 39 24.. 41 29.. 40
5.. 43 10.....31 15.. 45 20.. 40 25.. 41 30.. 40

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON
2013, JANUARY Fjan. = 127.1

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, JANUARY
Ap jan. = 4.49

Values of the Wolf smoothed numbers went down after 2012, February
designating first peak of the current solar cycle development. If
it appears the greatest from several (in their 14th solar cycle was
4 and the maximum fell on the second), it there will be a maximum
24 cycles of solar activity, but that UNLIKELY so in the low (W*<80)
authentic solar cycles (12, 14, 16) the rise branch length > 4 years.
Since January 4 the growth of the sunspot-forming activity level ob-
served - the second peak began?
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 28.01 - 02.02.2013,
Forecast on 03 - 11.02.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2133 (25,84.01.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL AND
ONLY JANUARY 31 - ON THE LOW. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD (6 DAY) WAS MADE 034+5/-6. ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 3 - 5 SMALL SUN-
SPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND
AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W =
040+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL ONLY 31.01 - 02.02 AND VERY LOW LEVEL
ON THE OTHER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OB-
SERVED 34 CME AND ONE OF THEM WAS A HALO TYPE AND THREE WERE THE "PAR-
TIAL HALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
31.01 0515 N25E73L206 >10 CME/0624
c/p local. - central part localization
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE
AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N40L281 N28L209 N17L239 N22L257 05.02 3(11) KP, SDO SOHO...
CH + S25L201 S40L186 S45L267 S40L211 08.02 1 KP, SDO SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 25.01/0030 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS BUT SHORT PERIOD 31.01/00 - 01.02/17 UT THE SIGN OF SEC-
TOR WAS "+". THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY - /+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT
07.02.

JANUARY 28 29 30 31 01 02 FEBRUARY
Wus 052 063 056 047 065 054
F10.7 098 095 097 103 104 112
Хbcg В2.5 В2.6 B1.9 B1.4 В1.8 В2.2 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 150 430 330 260 260 350 m.v.h.
N 2 1
IMF - - - -/+ +/- - АСЕ
е>2 4.4Е+6 6.8E+6 9.3E+6 1.6Е+7 2.1Е+6 8.1Е+5 GOES
Ie>2 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 3 0 1 1 2 8 nТ Ар
Dst КIOTO
Amsc 6 4 7 7 11 13 nТ IZMIRAN
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>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru