Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20130107.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jan 7 13:15:11 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:22 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п р р р р р р р п р п р п р п р п р п р п р п

---------------------------------------------------------------------
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2013 HAS MADE
Wdec.= 61.4,
THAT GIVES FOR 42 MONTH (2012, JUNE) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*june= 61.7
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
XI.2012 - III 2013
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012,
DECEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 38 6.....20m 11.. 34 16.. 47 21.. 43 26.. 41 31.. 64M
2.. 34 7.....22 12.. 48 17.. 53 22.. 56 27.. 39
3.. 32 8.....36 13.. 49 18.. 43 23.. 57 28.. 38
4.. 39 9.....30 14.. 43 19.. 39 24.. 41 29.. 40
5.. 43 10.....31 15.. 45 20.. 40 25.. 41 30.. 40

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON
2012, DECEMBER Fdec. = 121.3

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2012, DECEMBER
Ap dec. = 7.15

Values of the smoothed numbers of Wolf went down after 2012, February
designating first peak of the current solar cycle development. If it
appears the greatest from several (in their 14th solar cycle was 4 and
the maximum fell on the second), it there will be a maximum 24 cycles
of solar activity, but that UNLIKELY so in the low (W*<80) authentic
solar cycles (12, 14, 16) the rise branch length > 4 years. Since
January 4 the sharp growth of the sunspot-forming activity level - the
second peak began?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 31.12.2012 - 06.01.2013,
Forecast on 07 - 14.01.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2132 (29,50.12.2012)
PYATNOOBRAZOVATELNY ACTIVITY OF THE SUN

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN SINCE JANUARY 4 SHARPLY INCREASED
TO TO CONFIDENTLY HIGH LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN APPEARED
AT ONCE 5 NEW SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 080+32
/-03. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 5 - 15
SUNSPOTS GROUPS ONE OF THEM IS MIDDLE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGH AND
AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W =
060+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL AT 5.01, LOW LEVEL - 1, 3-4, 6.
01 AND VERY LOW - 31.12 AND 02.01. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DA-
TA THERE WERE OBSERVED 38 CME ONE OF THEM WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO III"
AND TWO - THE "PARTIAL HALO II".

--------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
05.01 0926 0931 >0934 n20e88L187 M1.7/ 4.2E-3 11682 CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE
AVERAGE LEVELS. AR11652 IS TOO CLOSE TO EAST LIMB TO ESTIMATE ITS
POSSIBLE FLARE POTENTIAL. WHILE, AR WITH SLOW PROCESSES OF THE NEW
MAGNETIC FLUXES, CAPABLE TO GIVE ONLY SEPARATE FLASHES OF AVERAGES
CLASSES.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + s08L004 S09l002 S12L010 S09L011 31.12 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH ? N10L291 N00L286 S05L289 S03L296 06.01 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH - N30L263 N29L260 N20l264 N25l280 08.01 10 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH - N40L228 N30L221 N28l233 N30l251 10.01 10 KP, SDO, SOHO..
Last two CH may be one CH;
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 06.01/1330 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 10.01.

DECEMBER 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 DECEMBER
Wus 087 099 090 116 167 181 186
F10.7 114 118 119 129 143 145 142
Хbcg В2.9 В3.1 В2.5 B2.5 В6.3 В7.9 B5.8 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 300 480 610 640 830 1030 1140 м.s.h.
N 2 2 2 5 2
IMF - - -/+ + + + +/- АСЕ
е>2 5.6Е+6 2.9E+6 1.9E+6 2.0Е+6 2.1Е+6 1.0Е+6 1.1E+6 GOES
Ie>2 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 1 0 3 2 2 2 2 nТ Ар
Dst КIOTO
Amsc 7 6 7 4 3 6 7 nТ IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------

е>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru