Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20121210.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Dec 10 11:37:40 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:13 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п п п п п

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 03 - 09.12.2012,
Forecast on 10 - 17.12.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2131 (02,17.12.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE LOW AND 4 - 5
NOVEMBER - THE AVERAGE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 028+19/-14. ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 2-6 SMAL SUNSPOTS
GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND
LOW LEVELS. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W =
040+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ON DECEMBER 3, 5, 7 AND 9, AND THE
VERY LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THE-
RE WERE OBSERVED 11 CME ON 5.12 THREE OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE
AVEREGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH +? N40L224 N33L220 N26L236 N30L238 13.12 9 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH +? N42L208 N40L202 N24L211 N22L220 14.12 1 KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

WITH 08.12/1930 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. 7-8.12 THE FIELD SIGN REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR
BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 21.12.

DECEMBER 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 DECEMBER
Wus 044 058 078 049 023 035 040
F10.7 097 096 096 097 097 101 104
Хbcg В1.2 В1.2 В1.2 B1.2 В1.2 В1.3 B1.4 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 280 280 220 130 130 080 130 м.д.п.
N 1 2 1 1
IMF - - - - -/+ +/-/+ + АСЕ
е>2 1.8Е+6 1.5E+6 1.7E+6 1.8Е+6 2.0Е+6 2.1Е+6 1.6E+6 GOES
Ie>2 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 4 3 1 1 0 1 2 нТ Ар
Dst КIOTO
Amsc 7 6 6 6 6 6 10 нТ IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a stream in days in (electrons/cm2-day-sr).
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru