Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20121203.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Dec 3 10:44:20 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:12 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2012 HAS MADE
Wnov.= 61.4,
THAT GIVES FOR 41 MONTH (2012, MAY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*may.= 61.7
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
XI.2012 - III 2013
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 80.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012,
NOVEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 66 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 33 6.. 33 11.. 76 16.. 94 21.. 75 26.. 51
2.. 32 7.. 43 12.. 86 17.. 98M 22.. 67 27.. 54
3.. 31m 8.. 46 13.. 85 18.. 93 23.. 55 28.. 54
4.. 32 9.. 46 14.. 94 19.. 85 24.. 58 29.. 55
5.. 36 10.. 52 15.. 97 20.. 74 25.. 59 30.. 49

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON 2012,
NOVEMBER Fnov. = 121.3

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2012, NOVEMBER
Ap nov. = 7.15

Values of the smoothed numbers of Wolf went down after 2012, February
designating first peak of the current solar cycle development. If it
appears the greatest from several (in their 14th solar cycle was 4 and
the maximum fell on the second), it there will be a maximum 24 cycles
of solar activity, but that UNLIKELY so in the low (W*<80) authentic
solar cycles (12, 14, 16) the rise branch length > 4 years.
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 26.11 - 02.12.2012,
Forecast on 03 - 10.12.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2130, 2131 (04,86.11, 02,17.12.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR
THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=032+17/-6. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY
THERE WERE PRESENT 3-5 SUNSPOTS GROUPS THREE OF WHICH IN SEPARATE DAYS
INCREASED UP TO THE AVERAGE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE
AND THE LAST TWO DAYS-ON LOW LEVELS. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON NOVEMBER 27-28, AND THE LOW
LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE
OBSERVED 35 CME ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "HALO" TYPE AND 3 - THE "PARTIAL
HALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
27.11 0812 0817 0820 S12W44L087 M1.6/SF 5.3E-3 11620
27.11 2105 2126 2142 S14W41L087 M1.0/SF 5.4E-3 11620
28.11 2120 2136 2200 S14W57L087 M2.2/SN 1.9E-2 11620

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
27.11 <0245 N20E46L010 CME/0245
27.11 <0530 N00W27L083 CME/0530
c/p local. - central part localization
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE
AVEREGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + N57L087 N55L082 N48L092 N50L097 26.11 1 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH - N09L055 S05L050 S07L056 S00L058 01.12 3 KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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WITH 30.11/07 TO 02.11/16 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD
PASS AT 14.12.

NOVEMBER 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 NOVEMBER
Wus 081 076 066 089 067 049 043
F10.7 122 117 114 113 111 102 098
Хbcg В5.8 В4.8 В4.6 B3.9 В3.4 В2.9 B1.6 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 630 730 980 1070 660 440 270 m.v.h.
N 1 1 1 1
IMF - - - - -/+ + +/- АСЕ
е>2 7.6Е+7 2.1E+7 2.9E+7 6.4Е+7 6.9Е+7 2.7Е+6 1.6E+6 GOES
Ie>2 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 4 3 2 3 1 3 7 nT Ар
Dst КIOTO
Amsc 6 6 6 7 6 9 8 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a stream in days in (electrons/cm2-day-sr).
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru