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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 05 - 11.11.2012,
Forecast on 12 - 19.11.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2130 (04,86.11.2012)


SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR
THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=042+22/-14. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY
THERE WERE PRESENT 4-6 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON NOVEMBER 8 AND 11, LOW - 5
AND 9 AND ON VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA SOHO AND STEREO CORONO-
GRAPHS WAS OBSERVED BY 36 CME ONE OF WHICH WAS THE GALO TYPE, 2 TYPES
"PARTIAL ГАЛО III" AND 2 TYPES "PARTIAL ГАЛО II".

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT NOVEMBER 8, 11, AND THE LOW AT
NOVEMBER 5 AND 9 AND VERY LOW IN OTER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO
CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 36 CME AMONG WHICH ONE WAS
THE TYPE "HALO, 2 - "PARTIAL HALO III" AND 2 - "PARTIAL HALO II".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
08.11 0208 0223 >0255 N13E89L233 M1.7/ 3.0E-2 11611 II/2 CME/0236
11.11 0211 0233 >0252 N13E89L193 M1.0/ 1.7E-2 11614 CME
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY
LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N10L291 N03L292 N00L285 N05L292 13.11 8 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH - N38L354 N36L352 N24L000 N30L007 07.11 1 SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

WITH 6.11/2330 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 14.11.

NOVEMBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 NOVEMBER
Wus 047 061 077 071 065 068 106
F10.7 097 099 102 104 115 122 133
Хbcg В1.9 В2.1 В2.1 B2.2 В3.1 В4.3 B5.4 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 040 130 280 410 410 350 130 м.д.п.
N 2 1 1 2
IMF + +/- - - - -/+/- -
е>2 4.7Е+6 2.3E+6 1.8E+6 3.4Е+6 3.8Е+6 4.1Е+6 2.3E+6 GOES
Ie>2 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 2 3 11 2 1 2 3 нТ Ар
Dst КIOTO
Amsc 7 7 15 4 5 5 4 нТ IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a stream in days in (electrons/cm2-day-sr).
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.
THE MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT WAS OBSERVED AT NOVEMBER 09-11;
MAX ~2p.f.u. AT 11/~01 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET,

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru