Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20121119.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Nov 19 14:51:04 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:10 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 12 - 18.11.2012,
Forecast on 19 - 26.11.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2130 (04,86.11.2012)


SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR
THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=77+36/-12. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY
THERE WERE PRESENT 6-8 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS BUT ON NOVEMBER 12 ONE,
AR11610 (S22L267), SHARPLY INCREASED THE AREA AND FOR ONE DAY BECAME
THE BIG.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL ON NOVEMBER 13, THE AVERAGE LEVEL
ON NOVEMBER 12 AND 14 AND THE LOW LEVEL - 15 - 18.11. BY DATA SOHO AND
STEREO CORONOGRAPHS WAS OBSERVED BY 49 CME ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "PAR-
TIAL ГАЛО III" TYPE AND 3 - THE "PARTIAL ГАЛО II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
12.11 2313 2328 >2333 S25E47L207 M2.0/ 1.0E-2 11613 II/2 CME
13.11 0158 0204 >0206 S25E46L207 M6.0/ 1.4E-2 11613
13.11 0542 0550 >0554 S26E44L207 M2.5/ 2.3E-3 11613
13.11 2050 2054 2109 S22E33L207 M2.8/SN 11613
14.11 0359 0404 >0407 S23E27L207 M1.1/ 2.5E-3 11613

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
16.11 0720 S39E22L180 24 C1.4 CME
16.11 <0700 0648 > E-limb L112 0.3R EPL CME
17.11 1033 1149 S16W62L250 6 11609
c/p local. - central part localization
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE
AVEREGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N10L291 N03L292 N00L285 N05L292 13.11 8 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH + S38L216 S45L214 S43L228 S45L238 17.11 3 SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

WITH 17.11/07 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 26.11.

NOVEMBER 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 NOVEMBER
Wus 188 108 126 132 141 163 136
F10.7 144 146 142 141 138 135 141
Хbcg В5.9 В5.1 В4.3 B4.2 В4.0 В3.9 B4.2 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 1600 850 930 910 800 650 560 m.v.h.
N 1 1 2
IMF - - - - - -/+ +
е>2 1.9Е+6 6.4E+5 7.1E+6 1.4Е+7 3.0Е+7 4.1Е+6 7.3E+7 GOES
Ie>2 267 281 1420 3160 1512 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 4 19 35 2 5 7 4 nT Ар
Dst -9 -23 -108 -39 -9 КIOTO
Amsc 8 23 20 6 10 13 7 nT IZMIRAN
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NOVEMBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 NOVEMBER
Wus 047 061 077 071 065 068 106
F10.7 097 099 102 104 115 122 133
Хbcg В1.9 В2.1 В2.1 B2.2 В3.1 В4.3 B5.4 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 040 130 280 410 410 350 130 м.д.п.
N 2 1 1 2
IMF + +/- - - - -/+/- -
е>2 4.7Е+6 2.3E+6 1.8E+6 3.4Е+6 3.8Е+6 4.1Е+6 2.3E+6 GOES
Ie>2 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 2 3 11 2 1 2 3 нТ Ар
Dst КIOTO
Amsc 7 7 15 4 5 5 4 нТ IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a stream in days in (electrons/cm2-day-sr).
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED TO 16/0120 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 0N NOVEMBER 19 - 22.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE AFTER ARRIVAL OF THE INTERPLANETARY
SHOCK (SI of 12.11/2316 UT) FROM FILAMENT EJECTION AT 9.11. THE SUB-
STORM (9 h.) IS REGISTERED IN EAST EARTH'S HEMISPHERE ACCORDING TO
IZMIRAN DATA. BESIDES, AT NIGHT 13.11 THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1,
Ams=43, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, Ams=52, dur.=15
h.) ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA WAS OBSERVED. THIS GEOMAGNE-
TIC DISTURBANCE WAS A CONSEQUENCE OF JOINT INFLUENCE OF DISTURBANCE
FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AT 10.11 AND PASSING BY EARTH OF THE SO-
LAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE CORONAL HOLE. IN OTHER DAYS GEO-
MAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET,

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru