Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20121105.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Nov 5 13:44:09 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:07 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: n02

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OCTOBER 2012 HAS MADE
Woct.= 53.3,
THAT GIVES FOR 40 MONTH (2012, APRIL) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*apr.= 64.6
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
09 - 12.2012
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 60 - 90.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012,
OCTOBER ACCORDING DATA OF 68 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 54 6.. 30 11.. 51 16.. 80 21.. 57 26.. 54 31.. 35
2.. 51 7.. 28m 12.. 58 17.. 71 22.. 59 27.. 47
3.. 44 8.. 34 13.. 56 18.. 76 23.. 64 28.. 37
4.. 43 9.. 49 14.. 66 19.. 66 24.. 66 29.. 48
5.. 42 10.. 53 15.. 83э 20.. 51 25.. 55 30.. 45

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON 2012,
OCTOBER F*oct. = 123.3

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2012, OCTOBER
Ap oct. = 10.4

Values of the smoothed numbers of Wolf went down after 2012, February
designating first peak of the current solar cycle development. If it
appears the greatest from several (in their 14th solar cycle was 4 and
the maximum fell on the second), it there will be a maximum 24 cycles
of solar activity.
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 29.10 - 04.11.2012,
Forecast on 05 - 12.11.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2129, 2130 (8,57.10; 04,86.11.2012)


SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR
THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=028+17/-8. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY
THERE WERE PRESENT 3-4 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND
THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
W = 040+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT OCTOBER 31, AND THE VERY lOW
IN OTER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD
IT WAS OBSERVED 29 CME AMONG WHICH ONE - "PARTIAL HALO III" AND ONE -
"PARTIAL HALO II".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
30.10 0640 0855 S32E07L063 24 CME/0824
c/p local. - central part localization
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY
LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - S07L043 S10L038 S20L042 S12L053 04.11 2 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH ? N38L354 N36L352 N24L000 N30L007 07.11 1 SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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WITH 16/15 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 27.10.

OCTOBER 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 NOVEMBER
Wus 075 056 035 048 034 035 046
F10.7 108 106 104 098 097 093 095
шbcg ?2.4 ?2.2 B2.4 ?2.2 ?1.9 ?2.0 B1.7 х-6wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 450 400 370 350 320 110 130 Э.v.h.
N 2 1 1 2
IMF + +/- - - - -/+ +
Х>2 5.5х+7 4.9E+8 3.7E+7 3.4х+6 1.7х+6 3.9х+6 4.9E+6 GOES
Ie>2 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 2 1 4 17 5 3 1 nT св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 6 5 7 20 6 7 6 nT IZMIRAN
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Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr).
Х>2 - a stream in days in (electrons/cm2-day-sr).

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE ON THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM LEVEL (G0,
Ams=27, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND ACTIVE-ACCORDING TO
THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS
REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET,
HOWEVER ON OCTOBER 5-6 ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER DATA GROWTH OF GEOMAG-
NETIC DISTURBANCE BECAUSE OF TRIPLE CME FROM DSFs ON WEST HEMISPHERE
OF SOLAR VISIBLE DISK ARRIVAL IS POSSIBLE. INFORMATION HAS NOT ENOUGH
TO PLACE THEM IN THE CORRESPONDING TABLE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru