Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20121029.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Oct 29 13:43:33 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:04 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: вторая космическая скорость

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 22 - 29.10.2012,
Forecast on 30.10 - 05.11.2012,
Carrington Rotation 2129 (8,57.10.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR
THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=042+10/-9. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY
THERE WERE PRESENT 3-5 SUNSPOTS GROUPS TWO OF WHICH HAD A MIDDLE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL AT OCTOBER 22, 23, AND THE lOW IN
OTER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT
WAS OBSERVED 39 CME AMONG WHICH THREE - "PARTIAL HALO II" AND ONE -
"PARTIAL HALO III".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
22.10 1838 1851 >1938 S12E61L114 M5.0/1F 3.4E-2 11598 CME/2124
23.10 0313 0317 >0321 S13E58L114 X1.8/ 4.9E-2 22598
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
26.10 ~0830 SE ~10
c/p local. - central part localization
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING
CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + S18L225 S22L212 S26L210 S20L205 22.10 1 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH - N38L139 N28L137 N23L139 N30L159 27.10 2 KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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WITH 16/15 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 27.10.

OCTOBER 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 OCTOBER
Wus 086 084 078 058 071 059 055
F10.7 156 142 136 130 131 122 117
шbcg ?5.8 ?5.8 B4.7 ?3.8 ?5.1 ?3.9 B3.2 GOES
Sp 550 490 390 640 690 870 460
N 1 1 1
IMF -/+ + + + + + +
Х>2 4.2х+8 1.7E+8 9.7E+7 9.4х+7 1.1х+8 2.7х+7 4.7E+7 GOES
Ie>2 8070 2964 1994 1729 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 2 7 4 4 4 4 3 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 3 10 5 5 7 5 5 IZMIRAN
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At the desire of users I begin the publication of the maximum inten-
sity of a electrons flux in geostationary orbits in days (Ie>2) ac-
cording to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2 - s-sr).

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL AFTER 9.10/1015 TO 22 - 26.10 WAS OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET,
HOWEVER ON OCTOBER 1 ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA GROWTH
OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE BECAUSE OF DOUBLE CME FROM DSF NEAR THE
WESTERN SOLAR LIMB ARRIVAL IS POSSIBLE. INFORMATION HAS NOT ENOUGH
TO PLACE THEM IN THE CORRESPONDING TABLE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru