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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 08 - 14.10.2012,
Forecast on 15 - 22.10.2012,
Carrington Rotation 2128, 2129 (11,29.09-8,57.10.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR
THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=045+13/-20. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY
THERE WERE PRESENT 3-5 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL AT OCTOBER, 8-10, OTHER DAYS -
ON LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS
OBSERVED 33 CME AMONG WHICH 3 WERE TYPE "HALO" (8 - 2, 14.10) AND 1 -
"PARTIAL HALO II".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
08.10 1105 1117 >1123 N17E88L042 M2.3/ 1.1E-2 11589
09.10 2322 2317 >2331 S29E86L256 M1.7/ 6.4E-3 11590
10.10 0451 0504 >0520 s27e73L256 M1.0/ 1.3E-2 11590
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
12.10 >0949 <0729 N17W28L335 13
c/p local. - central part localization
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND
AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING
CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + S04L316 S08L311 S21L324 S10L347 13.10 1 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH - N30L286 N22L282 N17L289 N19L297 16.10 7 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH + S30L282 S38L260 S43L263 S32L286 17.10 2 KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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WITH 13/0050 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 17.10.

0CTOBER 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 0CTOBER
Wus 041 063 071 082 089 085 097
F10.7 103 106 112 117 122 125 132
шbcg ?4.4 ?4.5 B3.0 ?5.0 ?4.3 ?4.3 B5.4 GOES
Sp 410 410 400 500 670 610 590
N 3 1 1 1
IMF +/ - - - - - -/+ +
Х>2 6.4х+5 1.3E+8 1.5E+8 4.1х+8 4.8х+8 8.1х+7 1.3E+8 GOES
Ie>2 4329 4623 9335 11400 2820 3670 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 35 39 9 6 16 34 20 св
Dst -98 -108 -43 -36 -26 -94 -52 ыIOTO
Amsc 27 26 15 8 14 33 23 IZMIRAN
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At the desire of users I begin the publication of the maximum inten-
sity of a electrons flux in geostationary orbits in days (Ie>2) ac-
cording to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2 - s-sr).

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL AFTER 9.10/1015 TO 14.10 WAS OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 15 - 21.10.

08/0515 UT ON EARTH THE SUDDEN IMPULSE IS NOTED. IT WAS CONSEQUEN-
CE BY DSF 05.10, AFTER WHICH THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=
46, dur.= 33 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND THE
MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 36, dur.=30 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN
DATA WERE REGISTERED. NEXT MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 41,
dur.=24 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND THE MINOR
MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=35, dur.=24 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA WE-
RE REGISTERED 13/10. THE SOURCES IT GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WAS
COMBINED ACTION OF NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND VERY LARGE DSF
07.10. BESIDES ON 14.10 ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA ONE MORE MINOR
MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 29, dur.= 12 h.) IS REGISTERED. IN OTHER
DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru