Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20121008.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Oct 8 16:13:21 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:45:58 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: п п п п п п п п п п

---------------------------------------------------------------------
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2012 HAS MADE
Wsep.= 61.5,
THAT GIVES FOR 39 MONTH (2012, MARCH) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*mar.= 66.8
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
09 - 12.2012
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 67 - 80.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012,
SEPTEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 68 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 95 6.. 76 11.. 50 16.. 42 21.. 55 26.. 95
2.. 93 7.. 62 12.. 48 17.. 36 22.. 38 27.. 74
3..112M 8.. 54 13.. 38 18.. 42 23.. 49 28.. 56
4..104 9.. 58 14.. 34m 19.. 44 24.. 66 29.. 52
5.. 80 10.. 46 15.. 40 20.. 53 25.. 89 30.. 65

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON 2012,
SEPTEMBER Fsep. = 123.2

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2012, SEPTEMBER
Ap sep. = 8
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 01 - 07.10.2012,
Forecast on 08 - 15.10.2012,
Carrington Rotation 2128, 2129 (11,29.09; 07,XX.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL
1-5 OCTOBER, AFTER - 0N LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 031+8/-9.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 5 - 3 SUNSPOTS
GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE AVERAGE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND
AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W =
050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT OCTOBER, 1-2nd AND 7th, OTHER
DAYS - ON VERY LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE
PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 57 CME AMONG WHICH 4 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO
III" AND 4 - "PARTIAL HALO II".
--------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
5.10 >1540 <0616 S12W26L156 6
5.10 0730 S12W36L066 >20 B7.5 11584 CME/pH/0730
6.10 2000 S65W15L163 30 C3.7 11577 CME/H/0812
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW
LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + N30L137 N27L134 N20L134 N19L132 01.10 1 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH - S00L035 S10L033 S20L038 S13L051 07.10 1 KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

WITH 02/0030 TO 05.10/1600 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD PASS
AT SEPTEMBER 09.

0CTOBER 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0CTOBER
Wus 059 055 058 056 055 039 037
F10.7 128 118 113 110 106 099 098
шbcg ?7.6 ?4.3 B2.1 ?1.8 ?2.1 ?1.7 B1.9 GOES
Sp 580 550 710 640 560 520 480
N
IMF + + /- - - -/+ + +
Х>2 7.4х+5 9.3E+5 1.0E+6 1.2х+6 1.6х+6 1.7х+6 2.5E+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 35 6 5 2 3 6 5 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 23 8 9 6 7 10 7 IZMIRAN

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

30/2307 UT ON EARTH THE SUDDEN IMPULSE SECOND IN DAYS ALREADY IS
NOTED. IT WAS CONSEQUENCE FLARE EVENT 27.09 (FLARE WITH FILAMENT
EJECTION) AFTER WHICH THE MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=69, dur.
=12 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND THE MODERATE
MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 41, dur = 15 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF
IZMIRAN IS REGISTERED. AT THE MOMENT OF HIGHLIGHT RELEASE AFTER
ARRIVAL OF DISTURBANCE TO EARTH FROM FILAMENT EJECTION 5.10 (SI
08/0430 UT) DEVELOPS MAGNETIC STORM (G2). IN OTHER DAYS THE GEO-
MAGNETIC SITUATION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE BEGINNING OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ON OCTOBER 8 IS
NOTED. ACTIVE CONDITION IS POSSIBLE 10.10 BECAUSE OFVERY LARGE FI-
LAMENT EJECTION ON OCTOBER 7 FROM THE CENTRAL ZONE OF THE SOLAR
VISIBLE DISK. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED
UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru