Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120923.en.txt Дата изменения: Sun Sep 23 08:39:19 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:45:55 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: magnetic storm

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 17 - 22.09.2012,
Forecast on 23 - 30.09.2012,
Carrington Rotation 2128 (11,29.09.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR
THE PERIOD (6 DAYS) WAS MADE W=036+8/-8. ON THE SOLAR DISK CONSTANT-
LY THERE WAS PRESENT FROM 5 TO 3 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. THE
CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT SEPTEMBER 17-20 AND OTHER DAYS
- ON VERY LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD
IT WAS OBSERVED 36 CME AMONG WHICH 1 WAS TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
18.09 >0040 <1355 S28W25l279 8
c/p local. - central part localization
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW
LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + S30L266 S38L263 S45L281 S35L291 19.09 1 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH - N12L256 N10L240 S04L250 N08L260 21.09 6 KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 20.09/04 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + EARTH SHOULD PASS 30.09.

SEPTEMBER 17 18 19 20 21 22 SEPTEMBER
Wus 051 061 062 068 074 046
F10.7 102 104 110 117 117 125
шbcg ?2.3 ?2.8 B2.5 ?2.7 ?2.5 ?3.1 GOES
Sp 220 330 420 610 420 390
N 1 1 1
IMF +/ - - -/+/- - - -
Х>2 2.2х+7 1.0E+7 1.4E+7 3.1х+6 7.4х+6 1.3х+7
Nm% THULE
Ap 5 8 13 6 4 3 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 6 10 20 12 7 8 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION THE ENTIRE PERIOD REMAINED UNSETTLED AND
QUIET, EXCEPT THE LAST 6 HOURS ON SEPTEMBER 19, WHEN ACCORDING TO
IZMIRAN DATA THE GEOMAGNETIC SUBSTORM (G1) - THE CONSEQUENCE OF
PASSING BY EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM NEAR EQU-
ATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF RATHER BIG SIZE WAS REGISTERED. ACCORDING
TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER THIS SUBSTORM NOTED AT THE SAME HOURS
HAD INTENSITY (GO). THE CORONAL HOLE WITH SUCH CHARACTERISTICS IN
LAST SOLAR CYCLES WITHOUT ANY DOUBT WOULD CAUSE THE SMALL MAGNETIC
STORM.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND
QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru