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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 03 - 09.09.2012,
Forecast on 10 - 17.09.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2127, 2128 (15,04.08; 11,29.09.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN ON SEPTEMBER 3 AND 4 WAS AT THE HIGH
LEVEL ALSO DURING THE REMAINING DAYS ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE
AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD
WAS MADE W = 068+26/-26. ON THE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THEY WAS PRESENT
FROM 9 TO 4 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. THE
CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT SEPTEMBER 6, 8, 9 AND OTHER
DAYS - ON LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD
IT WAS OBSERVED 56 CME AMONG WHICH 3 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
06.09 0406 0413 >0420 N03W60L126 M1.6/ 7.5E-3 11560
08.09 1735 1759 >1820 S14W40L005 M1.4/ 2.8E-2 11564 CME
09.09 2150 2236 2326 S15W62L005 M1.2/1F 3.6E-2 11564

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
04.09 >1615 <0515 N27EE61L022 7
c/p local. - central part localization
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE
LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N32L024 N25L020 N21L025 N27L032 10.09 7 SDO, SOHO....
CH ? S03L004 S06L001 S08L355 S05L007 13.07 1 SDO, SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 07.09/1230 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + EARTH SHOULD PASS 04.09.

SEPTEMBER 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 SEPTEMBER
Wus 156 150 105 112 110 070 087
F10.7 142 138 133 128 133 129 123
шbcg ?6.7 ?6.1 B5.4 ?4.4 ?5.3 ?7.1 ?5.4 GOES
Sp 860 590 670 550 640 470 420
N 2 1 1
IMF -/+ + +/- - -/+ + + ACE
Х>2 5.0х+6 2.3E+6 2.5E+6 2.5х+6 1.6х+7 2.1х+7 4.0E+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 34 13 25 11 10 7 4 св
Dst -51 -43 -51 -23 -20 -25 -5 ыIOTO
Amsc 28 12 18 10 11 9 8 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED 09.09.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 10-11 SEPTEMBER.

THE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE, WHICH WAS BEGUN OF SECOND SEPTEMBER, TO
THE MIDDLE OF DAY 3.09 DEVELOPED INTO THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1,
Ams= 38, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE DATA IZMIRAN and (G2, Ams= 46,
dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF CENTER IN BOULDER. THE SECOND
MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED INTO FIRST HALF DAY ON SEPTEMBER 5 - (G0,
Ams= 24, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE DATA IZMIRAN AND (G2, Ams=43,
dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF CENTER IN BOULDER. DURING THE
REMAINING DAYS GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REMAINED UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru