Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120910.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Sep 10 10:22:39 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:45:49 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: spring

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2012 HAS MADE
Waug.= 63.1,
THAT GIVES FOR 38 MONTH (2012, FEBRUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*feb.= 66.9
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
09 - 12.2012
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 60 - 90.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012,
AUGUST ACCORDING DATA OF 68 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 88 6.. 65 11.. 72 16.. 23 21.. 47 26.. 52 31..100
2.. 95 7.. 81 12.. 65 17.. 33 22.. 46 27.. 50
3..116э 8.. 82 13.. 49 18.. 36 23.. 47 28.. 53
4..101 9..105 14.. 22 19.. 48 24.. 47 29.. 55
5.. 82 10.. 87 15.. 20Э 20.. 53 25.. 51 30.. 84

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2012, AUGUST
F*aug. = 115.4
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2012, AUGUST
Ap aug. = 7.53

It became so far clear that the current solar cycle didn't become
lowest of authentic cycles of solar activity. The lowest
solar cycle there was N14.
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 27.08 - 02.09.2012,
Forecast on 03 - 10.09.2012,
Carrington Rotation 2127 (15,04.08.2012)

SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE
AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD
WAS MADE W=064+22/-20. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE
4-5 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH, APPEARING ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK
ON AUGUST 25, AVERAGE SIZES.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. THE
CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT AUGUST 30 AND OTHER DAYS -
ON LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS
OBSERVED 31 CME AMONG WHICH ONE WAS TYPE "HALO" AND ONE WERE "PARTIAL
HALO II".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
30.08 1202 1211 >1214 S27E85L078 M1.3/ 3.9E-3 11563
31.08 1945 2043 >2151 S19E42L092 C8.5/2F 5.1E-2 11562 II/2 IV/2 DSF CME/H

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
31.08 2043 S06E20L092 C8.5 11562 CME/H
c/p local. - central part localization
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
31.08 2043 S06E20L092 C8.5 11562 CME/H
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 24.08/1230 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + EARTH SHOULD PASS 04.09.

AUGUST 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 SEPTEMBER
Wus 085 073 095 118 144 120 108
F10.7 112 111 118 128 131 146 142
шbcg ?2.3 ?2.2 B3.4 ?6.7 ?7.8 ?9.8 ?8.2 GOES
Sp 580 340 360 370 730 740 640
N 3 1 1 3 1
IMF - - - - - - - ACE
Х>2 4.5х+7 5.3E+7 6.3E+7 6.7х+7 7.2х+7 2.0х+7 1.3E+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 6 3 4 3 2 6 14 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 13 7 7 12 8 11 7 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED 27 - 31 AUGUST.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REMAINED QUITE AND ACTIVE. HOWEVER, ON MARCH 2
AFTER THE ARRIVAL AT THE EARTH OF INTERPLANETARY DISTURBANCE FROM THE
FLARE C8.5/2F AND THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OF THE FLARE ASSOCIATING
(SI - 2/1214 UT) IN THE END OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF CENTER
IN BOULDER IS NOTED THE PROLONGED (12 HOURS) SUBSTORM, WHICH IN THE
INTENSITY DID NOT REACH THE THRESHOLD OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM; HOWEVER,
ACCORDING TO THE DATA IZMIRAN GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLEDED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACTIVE WITH MAGNETIC
STORMS 3-5 SEPTEMBER. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru