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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 23 - 29.07.2012,
Forecast on 29.07 - 06.08.2012,
Carrington Rotation 2126 (18.82.07.2012)

SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE
AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD
WAS MADE W=047+18/-11. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY WERE
PRESENT 4 - 7 SUNSPOT GROUP, ONE OF WHICH WAS BIG SIZE:
AR11532 (S20L185, Sp= 510 m.v.h. on 28.07)- it was appeares on the vi-
sible disk 25.07. Fast development with 27 on 28 with increase of sun-
spot area in 6,5 times and at the end of the days a large flare was
occurrences.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGHE LEVEL AT 28.07, THE AVERAGE LEVEL -27
and 29.07, AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORO-
NOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 69 CME AMONG WHICH TWO WAS TYPE
OF "HALO" (BACKSIDE AND M6.1 FLARE) AND 3 WERE "PARTIAL HALO II".
------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
27.07 1717 1726 >1732 s24Х70L185 M2.3/ 1.6E-2 11532 II/1 IV/1 CME/0355
28.07 2044 2056 2115 S25E54L185 M6.1/2N 4.0E-2 11532 II/2 IV/2 CME/0419
29.07 0615 0622 0744 S22E49L185 M2.3/1N 1.2E-2 11532 IV/1

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
24.07 2235 SE <10 CME/0350
27.07 >0000 SE CME
c/p local. - central part localization
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. LARGE
FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN AR11532 ONLY IN CASE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC STREAM
EMERGENCE.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
?ю + N28L266 N25L260 ?06L276 N06L290 28-29.07 6 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WITH 28.07/~ 20 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS.
DURING THE PERIOD FROM 23.11 BY UT EARTH PASSED "+" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING
SECTOR BOUNDARY - / + EARTH SHOULD PASS 5.08.

JULY 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 JULY
Wus 060 066 066 077 091 108 079
F10.7 097 102 105 115 123 127 131
шbcg ?2.50 ?2.7 B3.2 ?3.5 ?4.8 ?5.5 ?7.0 GOES
Sp 180 270 310 360 370 780 810
N 3 1 2 1 1
IMF -/ + + + + + + /- - ACE
Х>2 6.9х+7 5.4E+7 7.2E+7 1.0х+8 1.1х+8 8.0х+7 1.6E+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 9 10 6 4 4 12 6 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 13 10 9 5 17 12 8 IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
THE SOLAR PROTON EVENT OF LOW INTENCITY (S1) WAS OBSERVED FROM BACK SIDE
FLARE (AR11520 4 DAYS FOR W-limb) on JULY 23:
Pr (E>10 MeV) -23/1545 UT; tmax=12 p.f.u. - 23/2145 UT; te - 24/15 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED AFTER 23.07/11 UT TO 28.07.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND LOW.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru