Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120702.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jul 2 12:31:52 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:45:31 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: reflection nebula

---------------------------------------------------------------------
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2012 HAS MADE
Wjune= 64.5,
THAT GIVES FOR 36 MONTH (2011, DECEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*dec.= 63.4
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
09 - 12.2012
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 60 - 90.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012,
JUNE ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 85 6..107 11.. 90 16.. 74 21.. 11m 26.. 25
2..106 7.. 89 12.. 78 17.. 62 22.. 13 27.. 49
3..116M 8.. 75 13.. 79 18.. 40 23.. 11m 28.. 61
4..104 9.. 74 14.. 86 19.. 36 24.. 14 29.. 72
5..106 10.. 85 15.. 82 20.. 21 25.. 12 30.. 73

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2012, JUNE
F*june = 119.6
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2012, JUNE
Ap june = 12.58
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 25.06 - 02.07.2012,
Forecast on 03 - 10.07.2012,
Carrington Rotation 2125 (21,62.06.2012)

SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT 25-26 JUNE AND AFTER - ON
THE AVERAGE. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI-
ONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 044 +38/-36. ON THE VISIBLE
DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT FROM 1 TO 5 SUNSPOT GROUP
ONE OF WHICH SINCE WAS BIG SIZE.

AR11515 (S16L205, Sp=850 Э.Ф.а. ON 30.06)- appeared from East limb at
the end of the 25.06 as sunspot group of the average size. Probably
makes the complex of active regions with AR11514. After 30.06 to 1.07
it area increased in 2.5 times (new magnetic flux emergence), than
created reconditions of sharp increase of flare activity since June 3.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=050+25/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT AVERAGE LEVEL 28-30.06 and 1.07, IN OTHER DAYS
- AT LOW LEVEL. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERI-
OD IT WAS OBSERVED MORE THAN 48 CME AMONG WHICH 5 WAS SUCH AS "PARTI-
AL HALO II" TYPE.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
28.06 1607 1612 1625 N16E45L216 M2.4/1B 4.8E-3 11513
29.06 0913 0920 0932 N17E37L216 M2.2/1B 4.4E-3 11513
30.06 1248 1252 1304 N17E21L216 M1.0/1N 1.7E-3 11513
30.06 1826 1832 >1834 n17e17L216 M1.6/ 3.3E-3
01.07 1911 1918 1929 N14E04L216 M2.8/SB 8.5E-3 11513

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND HIGH LEVELS. LAR-
GE FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN JULY 3-5 IN AR11515.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N25L234 N20L229 S15L256 N05L269 30-02.07 7 KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 29.06/21 UT EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY -/ + EARTH SHOULD PASS 06.07.

JUNE 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 JUNE
Wus 014 028 079 073 097 090 137
F10.7 089 099 106 120 117 124 133
шbcg B1.3 ?2.3 B3.6 ?3.2 ?3.9 ?4.3 B6.3 GOES
Sp 060 160 570 530 790 810 1320
N 1 1 2 1 1
IMF + + + + +/- - - ACE
Х>2 2.2х+7 1.6E+7 1.5E+7 1.3х+7 1.7х+7 2.8х+6 8.3E+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 10 7 5 6 5 5 18 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 12 10 10 8 10 21 17 IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED AFTER 1.07/1320 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 2 - 9.07, AS A RESULT OF RECURRENT GEOMAGNETIC DIS-
TURBANCE FROM SOLAR CORONAL HOLE.

LAST WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET TO THE
FIRST HALF ON JUNE 30 WHEN EARTH WAS INCLUDED INTO THE HIGH-SPEED
STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM VERY BIG CORONAL HOLE. GEOMAGNETIC OB-
SERVATORY REGISTERED THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=24, dur.=15 h.)
ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G0, Ams=26, dur.= 24 h.) ACCORDING TO THE
CENTER IN BOULDER.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru