Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120709.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jul 9 17:39:14 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:45:33 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: dust disk

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 02 - 08.07.2012,
Forecast on 09 - 16.07.2012,
Carrington Rotation 2125 (21,62.06.2012)

SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL AT 02 JULY AND AFTER - ON THE
AVERAGE JEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 079+20/-6. ON THE VISIBLE
DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT 5 - 6 SUNSPOT GROUP TWO OF
WHICH WERE BIG SIZE:
AR11515 (S16L205, Sp=850 m.v.h. ON 30.06)- appeared from East limb at
the end of the 25.06 as sunspot group of the average size. Probably
makes the complex of active regions with AR11514. After 30.06 to 1.07
it area increased in 2.5 times (new magnetic flux emergence), and at
time interval July 3 - 8 in it 5 large and 26 midle solar flare were
occurrence.
AR11520 (S15L088, Sp = 1070 m.v.h. ON 8.07) - it was formed on the vi-
sible disk 06.07 near east limb. Fast development assumes high flare
activity, since July 9-10.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE
AND HIGH. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
W=060+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGHE LEVEL AT 2, 4, 6 AND 8.07, THE AVERA-
GE LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR
THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED MORE THAN 40 CME AMONG WHICH 7 WAS SUCH AS
"PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
02.07 0025 0036 0050 N15E01L216 M1.1/2B 4.6E-3 11513
02.07 1035 1052 1114 S17E08L205 M5.6/1B 2.7E-2 11515
02.07 1959 2007 >2013 s17e03L205 M3.8/ 1.8E-2 11515
02.07 2349 2356 >0003 S16W02L205 M2.0/SF 1.1E-2 11515
04.07 0428 0437 0502 S17W18L205 M2.3/SN 1.6E-2 11515 IV/1
04.07 0601 0955 1250 S20W18L205 2B/M5.3 1.4E-2 11515
1207 1224 >1232 S20W18L205 2B/M2.3 2.6E-2 11515
04.07 1435 1440 1558 S18W18L205 M1.3/SN 2.3E-3 11515 II/1
04.07 1626 1639 1722 N14W34L216 2N/M1.8 1.2E-2 11513 II/1
04.07 2203 2209 >2215 s17w21L205 M4.6/ 2.0E-2 11515
04.07 2347 2355 >0002 s17W21L205 M1.2/ 2.0E-3 11515
05.07 0105 0110 0121 S18W26L205 M2.4/3N 4.8E-3 11515
05.07 0235 0242 >0247 s17w27L205 M2.2/ 9.7E-3 11515
05.07 0325 0336 >0339 s17w28L205 M4.7/ 1.4E-2 11515
05.07 0615 0658 0743 S18W39L205 F1/M1.1 8.5E-3 11515
05.07 0740 0745 >0748 s14e62L107 M1.3/ 3.8E-3 11519
05.07 1044 1048 1118 S19W30L205 M1.8/SN 3.2E-3 11515
05.07 1139 1144 1210 S20W32L205 M6.1/1B 1.8E-2 11515
05.07 1301 1318 1418 S16W43L205 2N/M1.2 1.5E-2 11515
05.07 2009 2014 2100 S18W38L205 M1.6/SF 1.3E-2 11515
05.07 2137 2145 2243 S12W46L205 M1.6/1N 8.6E-3 11515
06.07 0137 0140 0156 S18W42L205 M2.9/SN 4.1E-3 11515
06.07 0230 0251 0318 S11W55L205 1N/M1.0 6.7E-3 11515
06.07 0807 0823 0925 S17W40L205 SB/M1.5 5.3E-3 11515
06.07 1024 1029 1051 S17W42L205 M1.8/1N 5.2E-3 11515
06.07 1324 1330 1355 S20W45L205 SF/M1.2 2.1E-3 11515 IV/1
06.07 1848 1855 >1907 S18W51L205 M1.3/SF 8.3E-2 11515
06.07 2301 2308 >2314 s17w55L205 X1.1/ 4.3E-2 11515 II/3 IV/1 CME
07.07 0310 0315 >0323 S17W51L205 M1.2/SF 6.7E-3 11515
07.07 0818 0828 >0839 s14e60L088 M1.0/ 9.6E-3 11520
07.07 1057 1103 1117 S19W58L205 M2.6/SF 8.3E-3 11515
08.07 0541 0546 0643 S13W80L205 M1.3/1F 6.0E-3 11515
08.07 0944 0953 1010 S21W67L205 M1.1/1F 4.4E-3 11515
08.07 1205 1209 1229 S21W69L205 1F/M1.4 3.5E-2 11515
08.07 1623 1632 1646 S17W74L205 M6.9/1N 4.5E-2 11515 II/2 CME/1648
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND HIGH LEVELS. LAR-
GE FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN JULY 9-12 IN AR11520.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N48L154 N46L130 N18L154 N205L167 09.07 3 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

06.07/22 - 08.07/05 UT EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + EARTH SHOULD PASS
10.07.

JUNE 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 JUNE
Wus 165 136 129 122 131 127 112
F10.7 166 146 163 165 158 158 178
шbcg ?8.4 ?1.0 ?2.0 ?2.6 ?2.4 ?1.5 ?2.0 GOES
Sp 1130 1000 990 1050 1240 1590 1910
N 2 1
IMF + + + + +/- - -/+ ACE
Х>2 1.1х+8 3.6E+8 4.2E+8 4.1х+8 9.2х+7 3.4х+7 3.4E+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 19 10 9 14 16 8 13 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 16 12 11 19 18 10 12 IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------

SOLAR PROTON EVENT IS OBSERVED AFTER X-RAY CLASS X1.1 SOLAR FLARE 06.07:
Pr (E>10 MeV) - 07/0400 UT; tmax=25 p.f.u. - 7/0745 UT; te - 7/2110 UT.

ONE MORE SOLAR PROTON EVENT OF MINOR INTENSITY BEGAN 09/0130 UT FROM
X-RAY CLASS M6.9 SOLAR FLARE ON JULY э6.9.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED AFTER 1.07/1320 UT TO 06.07.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 16 - 18.07.

LAST WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE (2, 5-6
JULY) ALL THE PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE.
MAGNETIC STORMS FROM FLARE IN AR11520, IF THESE EVENTS ARE REALIZED
(WHILE PROBABILITY NO MORE THAN 25 %), CAN OCCUR AFTER JULY 12.





HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru