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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 11 - 17.06.2012,
Forecast on 18 - 25.06.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2124 2125 (25,42.05; 21,62.06.2012)

SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD 03-10.06)
WAS MADE W=071+16/-13. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY
WERE PRESENT FROM 6 TO 5 GROUPS OF THE SUNSPOT GROUP ONE OF WHICH
SINCE JUNE 12 BECAME BIG AND MODERATELY ACTIVE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=060+15/-15.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT AVERAGE LEVEL 13 AND 14.06. IN OTHER DAYS -
LOW LEV
EL. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT
WAS OBSERVED 33 CME ON AMONG WHOM WERE ONE HALO TYPE (12.06) AND 3
(13-15.06) OF PARTIAL HALO II TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
13.06 1129 1317 1623 S16E18L086 M1.2/1N 7.5E-2 11504 IV/2 CME/pH
14.06 1252 1435 >1734 S17E06L086 M2.1/1B 1.2E-1 11504 IV/2 CME/pH

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
15.06 >0142 <1227 N25W67L137 14
15.06 0554 0738 N20W57L123 17 CME/pH
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + N42L144 N39L139 N28L158 N30L164 11.06 2 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH + S33L146 S30L138 S32L140 S25L152 12.06 1 KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH + N30L038 N25L024 N23L030 N27L043 20.06 2 KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

WITH 17.06/16 UT EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. HOWEVER WITH 12.06/02 UT UT IT WAS IN "+" SECTOR. THE
FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY -/ + EARTH SHOULD PASS 25.06.

JUNE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 JUNE
Wus 114 132 145 114 113 110 096
F10.7 134 141 143 149 145 135 124
шbcg B5.5 ?6.1 B8.6 ?9.7 ?5.5 ?4.2 B4.6 GOES
Sp 370 670 880 840 930 1070 978
Nnew 1 1
IMF +/- -/+ + + + + +/- ACE
Х>2 5.2х+7 1.8E+7 4.4E+7 4.4х+7 5.9х+7 4.2х+7 1.8E+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 17 12 6 4 4 19 39 св
Dst -49 -56 -16 -6 0 3 -76 ыIOTO
Amsc 16 14 8 6 5 23 29 IZMIRAN
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MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT S1 WAS OCCURED AFTER BACKSIDE FLARE EVENT:
Pr (E>10 MeV), to 16/1955 UT, max-14.4 p.f.u.-16/2020; te-16/2255 UT.;


THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED FROM 06.05/1210 UT 06 - 11.06.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

LAST WEEK THE MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED FROM JUNE 16 TO JUNE 18:
(G2, Ams=34; dur.=42 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, Ams=39; dur.
=36 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA. SOURCES OF THIS DISTUR-
BANCES WERE SOLAR FLARE MIDDLE X-RAY CLASS ON JUNE 13 - 14. ON JUNE 16
SUDDEN IMPULSES OF SI/0957, 2019, 2115 UT WERE REGISTERED. IN OTHER
DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru