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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 14 - 20.05.2012,
Forecast on 21 - 28.05.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2123 2124 (28,19.04; 25,42.05.2012)

SUNSPOT ACTIVITY ON LAST WEEK WAS AT HIGH LEVEL ON MAY 14 AFTER WHEN
13.05 ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK THERE WERE AT ONCE 4 SUNSPOT GROUPS,
BUT ALREADY FROM 15.01 EVERYTHING RETURNED TO THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WE-
EKLY THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR
THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=074+19/-08. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CON-
STANTLY WERE PRESENT 9-6 GROUPS OF SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP. AR11476 LEFT
FOR W-LIMB SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY 18.05, BUT
BEFORE VISIBLE DISK PARTING ON 17.05 IT MADE LARGE PROTON FLARE OF
CLASS M5: AR11476(N09L188, Sp max.=1050 m.v.h., delta, э/12, LARGE-2).

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=060+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT HIGH LEVEL ON MAY 17, AND ON LOW-IN OTHER DAYS.
RARE EVENT:14 MAY IN SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK THE-
RE WAS SPOTLESS VERY LARGE SOLAR FLARE OF CLASS 4F/C1. BY DATA OF SO-
HO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 39 CME ON AMONG WHOM
WERE ONE OF HALO TYPE (FROM FLARE э5.1) AND ONE OF TYPE PARTIAL HALO
III (BOTH 17.05).

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
14.05 0038 0044 0058 S23W68L190 C1/4F 6.5E-4
17.05 0125 0147 0308 N11w76L188 M5.1/1N 9.9E-2 11476

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
18/05 ~0510 N15W17L087
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + S03L088 S04L056 S14L063 S12L066 22.05 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH - N30L028 N28L023 N15L033 N25L048 25.05 5 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 17.05/14 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD
PASS 22.05.

MAY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 MAY
Wus 156 125 122 114 118 110 124
F10.7 130 129 131 136 132 131 131
шbcg B4.3 ?4.9 B4.5 ?6.5 ?4.5 ?3.5 ?3.4 GOES
Sp 850 550 630 720 770 840 880
Nnew 1 1
IMF - - - -/+ + + + ACE
Х>2 2.3х+8 1.5E+8 1.4E+8 1.5х+7 1.9х+7 1.1х+7 1.1х+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 6 5 10 5 8 4 13 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 9 8 11 7 10 8 12 IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------

SOLAR PROTON EVENT S2 WAS OCCURED AFTER SOLAR FLARE OF CLASS э5.1:
Pr(E>10 MeV), to -17/0210; tmax-17/0230-255 p.f.u.; te-18/1620 UT;
Pr(E>100 MeV), to -17/0200; tmax-17/0430-20 p.f.u.; te-17/1725 UT;

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED FROM 10.05/1455 UT 14 - 16.05.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

LAST WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru