Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120423.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Apr 23 10:36:08 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:44:47 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: ultraviolet

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 16 - 22.04.2012,
Forecast on 23 - 30.04.2012,
КЭРРИНГТОНОВСКИЕ ОБОРОТЫ 2122, 2123 (31,93.03, 28,19.04.2012)

SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE PAST PERIOD GRADUALLY INCREASED FROM THE AVE-
RAGE TO HIGH AND AGAIN TO AVERAGE OF LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEK-
LY THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE
PERIOD WAS MADE W=070+27/-21. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTAN-
TLY THERE WERE 5 - 6 QUIET SUNSPOT GROUPS FOUR OF WHICH REACHED THE
AVERAGE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THE CALCULATED
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO-
NAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=060+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY AT 16.04 WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL AND THE LOW IN OTHER
DAYS AT LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OB-
SERVED 49 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AMONG WHICH 4 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL
HALO II" (16, 18, 19.04).

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
16.04 1724 1745 >1800 n13w85L068 M1.7/BSL 2.5E-2 11461

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
16.04 1300 S43E33L166 ? CME
17.04 >0102 1330 <1339 N24W40L176 17 CME/1424
19.04 1342 1617 S36E71L038 14 CME/1524
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N50L111 N43L093 N40L113 N45L116 23.04 3 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH - N27L062 N25L060 N18L072 N23L075 25.04 4 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 20.04/07 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD
PASS 23.04.

APRIL 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 APRIL
Wus 086 078 096 122 162 147 118
F10.7 108 114 122 138 142 149 148
Хbcg B2.7 В2.9 B4.0 В5.2 В3.8 В5.4 В6.4 GOES
Sp 500 300 590 520 1509 1630 1490
Nnew 1 2 1 1 1 1
IMF - - - - -/+ + + ACE
е>2 3.6Е+8 1.1Е+8 7.5E+6 1.1Е+7 2.6Е+6 6.4Е+6 6.0Е+9 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 5 8 8 4 8 7 7 Ар
Dst КIOTO
Amsc 9 13 9 8 8 10 11 IZMIRAN
---------------------------------------------------------------

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED 16-17.04.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK ON APRIL 23 PROBABLY GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY AFTER
ARRIVAL TO EARTH THE DISTURBANCE FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA 19.04
ACCOMPANIED BY CME TYPE "PARTIAL GALO II" (ANGULAR WIDTH 103 deg.).
PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ON 23.04 ABOUT 60 %. In OTHER DAYS
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru