Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120308.en.txt Дата изменения: Thu Mar 8 13:24:24 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:44:25 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: meteor

UPDATE FROM 03/08/2012: AT THE TIME OF ARRIVAL IN ENVIRONMENT DISTURBANCES
OF LARGE SOLAR FLARE
05.03 0230 0409 0643 N17E52L299 X1.1/2B 3.7E-11 429 1 CME
AND DEVELOPMENT MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM, IN COMPLEX ACTIVE REGIONS ON SUN
AR11429 (N18L299, Sp = 1270 m.v.h. at 7.03) + AR11430 (N19L315, Sp = 200
m.v.h to 7.02) THE TWO LARGE SOLAR FLARES WAS OCCURRENCED

07.03 0000 0024 0349 N17E27L299 3B/X5.4 6.7E-11 429 1 II / 2, IV / 2, CME / H
07.03 0105 0114 0130 N22E12L315 X1.1/2B 1.5E-11 429 1 II / 2 of CME,

AND THE SECOND FLARE THERE WAS IN THE PERIOD OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST.
DISTURBANCES OF THE FLARES COME IN ENVIRONMENT AT THE SECOND HALF DAY OF MARCH
8 AND WITH A PROBABILITY OF 90% WILL CAUSE A SEVERAL MAGNETIC STORM.

WHEREAS, THAT THE FLARES ALREADY HAS CAUSED THE MOST POWERFUL PROTON EVENTS
(S3) THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE
Pr> 10 MeV: te - 7.03/0500 UT; tm - 7.03/1630 UT - 1630 pfu, in the development;
IN NEAR-EARTH ENVIRONMENT CREATED AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL MARCH 11 VERY very
UNFAVORABLE RADIATION SITUATION.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2012 HAS MADE
Wfeb.= 33.1,
THAT GIVES FOR 32 MONTH (2011, AUGUST) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF
SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*aug= 59.0
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
09 - 12.2012
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 60 - 90.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012,
FEBRUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 68 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 61M 6.. 29 11.. 32 16.. 33 21.. 41 26.. 33
2.. 41 7.. 22 12.. 34 17.. 34 22.. 30 27.. 30
3.. 24 8.. 9m 13.. 45 18.. 38 23.. 38 28.. 29
4.. 26 9.. 20 14.. 40 19.. 48 24.. 40 29.. 14
5.. 23 10.. 32 15.. 37 20.. 44 25.. 33

THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2012, FEBRUARY
F*jan. = 106.5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 27.02 - 04.03.2012,
Forecast on 05 - 12.03.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2120, 2121 (06,28.02; 04,62.03.2012)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE AND LOW
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=023+19/-10.
ON the VISIBLE DISK of the SUN CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT FROM 4 TO 2
SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS, HOWEVER 3.02 FROM EAST LIMB THERE
WAS A BIG, ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP AR11429 (N18L299, Sp=700 m.v.h. on
4.02) ALREADY OCCURENCED ONE LARGE AND 2 FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASES.

NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE
CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=040+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT FEBRUARY, 2 AND 4, LOW -
1.03 AND VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR
THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 39 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH 7
WERE TIPE "PARTIAL HALO" II (27, 29.02 щ 4.03).

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X/opt. J/m-2
02.03 1729 1746 >1807 N16E83L299 M3.3/SF 4.9E-2 11429 CME
04.03 1029 1052 >1324 N19E61L299 M2.0/1N 9.2E-2 11429 IV/2 CME
05.03 0230 0409 0643 N17E52L299 X1.1/2B 3.7E-1 11429 CME HALO
DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME
27.02 1433 CME
28.02 <1309 >0703 N24E59L011 11
c/p local. - central part localization
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON HIGHE (5-6.02), AVERAGE AND
LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - S16L053 S23L051 S32L053 S24L066 03.03 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH + N37L017 N36L012 N28L025 N31L027 06.03 1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + S15L012 S33L315 S50L317 S17L017 07.03 4 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 29.02/2330 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD
PASS 21.03.

FEBRUARY 27 28 29 01 02 03 04 MARCH
Wus 045 035 022 024 024 052 070
F10.7 106 103 102 103 108 116 120
шbcg ?2.0 ?1.6 ?1.5 ?1.7 ?3.0 ?2.6 ?4.5 GOES
Sp 130 130 130 110 100 430 870
Nnew 1 2 1
IMF + + + /- - - - - ACE
Х>2 5.1х+6 2.0х+6 3.6E+6 4.0х+6 4.4х+7 7.0х+7 3.3х+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 18 8 4 16 11 8 13 св
Dst -52 -39 -25 -35 -44 -37 -42 ыIOTO
Amsc 28 10 7 21 13 10 13 IZMIRAN

A GREATER THAN 10 MeV PROTON ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AT APPROXIMATELY
04/1800 UT AND CONTINUED TO BE ENHANCED BY THE END OF THE REPOR-
TING PERIOD.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED AT MARCH, 2/1425 UT TO 4.03.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED 27.02 WHEN ACCORDING TO
IZMIRAN DATA THE INTENSIVE 9-hour SUBSTORM (G2) WAS OCCURENCED. AC-
CORDING TO THE WORLD NETWORK DATA THE SUBSTORM (G1) OCCUPIED 3 HOURS
HAS BEEN NOTED. THE SECOND PERIOD OF ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS
HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE END OF DAY AT MARCH, 1. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAG-
NETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK AT MARCH, 7 THE EARTH WILL GET UNDER BLOW OF THE LARGE FAST
CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM FLARE X-RAY CLASS ш1.1 5.03. WITH PROBABI-
LITY OF 70% IT IS POSSIBLE TO EXPECT THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM. GEO-
MAGNETIC CONDITIONS OF NEXT DAYS WILL DEPEND ON REALIZATION OF GEOEF-
FECTIVE FLARES OF SUNSPOT GROUP AR11429.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru