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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 06 - 12.02.2012,
Forecast on 13 - 20.02.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2120 (06,28.02.2012)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE AND LOW
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=026+22/-10. ON
THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT FROM 2 TO 5
SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH HAVING ARISEN ON FEBRUARY, 9th ON х24
AND ALREADY AT 11.02 QUICKLY HAS DEVELOPED IN GROUP OF THE AVERAGE
SIZE, WHILE WITHOUT FLARES.

NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE
CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS
FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 27 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH
WERE 3 - TIPE "PARTIAL HALO" II AND ONE - III.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X/opt. J/m-2
DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME
09.02 <0003 <1727 N18E06L301 18
09.02 <2359 <1530 S35E53L254 ? CME/09/2147
10.02 S31E29L265 23 CME/1154
10.02 1847 1900 1928 N28E10L284 27 CME/2012
c/p local. - central part localization
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + N20L327 N10L325 N00L332 N20L330 11.02 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH - N31L322 N30L317 N25L324 N28L329 11.02 3 SDO, SOHO...
CH + S20L346 S30L327 S38L329 S21L348 09.02 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH - S35L262 S38L226 S45L246 S33L272 15.02 2 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH - N12L216 S10L206 S15L214 NO3L229 18-19.02 1 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 01/23 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE SECTOR BOUDARY CLOSE 10.02 HAS ACTUALLY DISAPPEARED.
THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 20.02.

FEBRUARY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FEBRUARY
Wus 027 024 028 033 051 062 080
F10.7 112 107 097 099 111 112 110
шbcg ?2.2 ?2.5 ?3.1 ?2.7 ?2.7 ?3.0 ?2.4 GOES
Sp 210 210 090 150 120 430 550
Nnew 1 1 1 3
IMF - - - - - - - ACE
Х>2 1.6х+7 7.0х+6 3.3E+7 8.6х+7 1.2х+7 1.1х+7 1.3х+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 4 11 9 4 4 4 4 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 9 15 14 9 8 7 6 IZMIRAN
---------------------------------------------------------------

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED 8 - 9.02.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE ALL PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED,
HOWEVER ON FEBRUARY, 14-15th TO THE EARTH WILL COME DISTURBANCES FROM
EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENTS 9-10.02 AND GROWTH DISTURBANCE OF THE GEOMAG-
NETIC FIELD IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM <10 %.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru